What 150 Campaign Ads Tell Us

A new analysis of campaign ads highlights where each side believes the other is most vulnerable. (NBC News)

The study: An NBC News review of 150 TV ads in 44 competitive House districts found 0 Democratic ads mentioned Donald Trump and only 4 GOP ads referenced or showed Kamala Harris.

• Across the board, roughly 25% of ads across all House races mentioned the high cost of living.

Where are Dems vulnerable: 40% of GOP ads focused on cost of living, compared to just 16% of Democratic ads.

• About 20% of Democratic ads responded to Republican border security attacks.

Where Republicans are weak: 30% of Democratic ads referenced abortion access, but only 2 GOP ads addressed the issue.

Related: A 2024 study of more than 600 political ads found there is no consistent formula for what makes an ad work.

• According to researchers, characteristics like tone (positive or negative), focus on issues or aesthetic choices don’t reliably predict success.

• In 2018, issue-focused ads performed better, but in 2020, ads focused on character or biography were more effective in congressional and Senate races.

• The most effective ads were more than twice as impactful as the average ad.

Bubba’s Two Cents

You don’t need to be a media specialist to recognize that everyone is on their phone all the time, so you should probably meet them there instead of dying broadcast TV. I don’t have a ton of political campaign experience to lean upon, but I’ve been close enough to see some truly stupid ad campaigns that are clearly designed to line the pockets of consultants and agencies incentivized by a percentage of the ad buy — as in regardless of performance, they get paid more to buy more ad space. If the incentives aren’t aligned with performance, nothing will change.