Two Big Election Trends
Bubba
15 Oct
Two big recent trends in politics have been increases in political polarization and a growing educational divide between the two parties. (Silver Bulletin)
A new analysis from data guru Nate Silver: Over the last 25 years, red states have become redder and blue states bluer.
In 1996, only 7 states had election margins of 20+ percentage points, but by 2020, 19 states did.
Education: In 2006, there was almost no difference in voting patterns based on education. By 2020, Joe Biden won 54% of white college graduates but only 37% of white non-graduates.
Race: With the Dems becoming the party of the highly educated, we’ve seen some black and Latino voters, who are less likely than whites to have college degrees, defect to the GOP.
For instance, Donald Trump has increased his support among non-college-educated black and Hispanic voters, with The New York Times’ Nate Cohn saying this week: “Trump is running as well or better among Black and Hispanic voters as any Republican in recent memory.”
A recent New York Times/Siena poll showed Trump gaining 15% of the black vote (up from 9% in 2020).
Silver:
…the increasing educational divide is coming into tension with the most longstanding feature of American politics: racial polarization. … Black and Hispanic voters are more working class — less likely to have completed college degrees — than white ones. So in principle, a continued increase in educational polarization would lead to erosion in Democratic support among these groups, but gains with white ones.
2024: The presidential election, which is just a few weeks away, is likely to give us some further insight into these trends. (Sidenote: Kamala Harris is polling well behind Biden and Hillary Clinton at this point in time in their races.)
Bubba’s Two Cents
Is it possible we soon see a day where education is a brighter dividing line in American politics than race? If so, I think that’d be a welcome development, as race in politics has been a pretty destructive force.