Thursday Edition: Pump the Brakes on Kamala

Kamala Harris’ entry into the 2024 presidential race has given Democrats a shot of life, but maybe they should pump the brakes a little bit. (Silver Bulletin)

The latest: According to new projections from Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin presidential model, Harris is still an underdog, with just a 42.5% chance of winning the Electoral College.

• Compare that to Trump’s 56.9% odds.

The narrative: Swapping President Biden with Harris has been viewed in the press as a game-changer that’s “reset” the presidential race and turned it into a toss-up.

To be fair: There has been a polling and enthusiasm bump for Democrats since Harris entered the race.

Bubba’s Two Cents

We’ll find out for sure in November whether the media hype surrounding Harris (who was previously viewed as a pretty underwhelming politician) matches her actual impact. As conservative commentator Jazz Shaw noted recently, it’s true she’s doing better than Biden, but “It’s difficult to imagine anyone doing much worse.”

The Elon Musk era at X/Twitter may have made conservative social media alternatives like Truth Social and Gettr redundant. (The Righting)

The latest: According to media analysis website The Righting, a number of conservative-friendly platforms have seen their year-over-year traffic plummet.

• Truth Social, which is owned by Donald Trump’s technology company, saw a 38% drop in unique visitors in June 2024 (2.1 million) compared to June 2023 (3.4 million).

• Rumble had 6.4 million unique visitors (-43% YoY).

• Gettr had 134,000 (-34% YoY).

Related: With few exceptions, conservative media and mainstream news sites have seen an across-the-board decline in audience size in recent years.

X is king?: Despite a slight decline in traffic, X still has a much larger user base than its right-leaning rivals, according to SimilarWeb data.

• In June, X racked up 1.2 billion total visits, per Similar Web.

Big picture: More importantly, the site has arguably never been more influential.

• When President Biden announced he was dropping out of the 2024 race, he bypassed traditional media and posted a statement to X.

• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis launched his 2024 campaign on X.

Trump: Prior to Musk’s takeover, conservatives who felt their views were being suppressed on Twitter flocked to alternatives like Truth Social and Gettr.

• But Musk has made the place a lot more welcoming to them, reinstating Trump’s previously banned account and relaxing policies restricting speech.

• Some have even argued Trump is missing out on a bigger audience and hurting his campaign by declining to post on X.

Bubba’s Two Cents

Musk’s overhaul of X has taken the wind out of the sails of many social media platforms created as free speech havens. But maybe these platforms were destined to fail regardless because they’re de facto echo chambers. Conflict is at the heart of so much of social media culture. So much of it is about people dunking on each other, especially in politics. You lose that when your platform is full of just liberals or just conservatives.

Inflation hasn’t affected everyone equally — in fact, for some Americans it’s been a boon. (WSJ)

Who is benefitting? High earners and investors are seeing significant gains from stocks, home values, dividends and interest, with investment income reaching about $3.7 trillion annually.

• Goldman Sachs estimates a 0.3 percentage point growth in consumption due to high earners continuing to spend through inflation.

• The proportion of cash offers on existing homes increased from 26% to 28% over the last year, suggesting wealthy buyers are driving up demand.

What James De Franco, a retired pharmacist, told the Wall Street Journal: “Because of my assets, I’m actually making more money than the inflation rate is harming me."

Who is hurting? Low- and middle-income Americans are struggling with high inflation and rising borrowing costs, leading to increased delinquencies on credit card and auto-loan payments.

• Pandemic-era savings have run out for the bottom 40% of earners, with many now facing higher delinquency rates compared to post-Great Recession levels.

Related: According to Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas researchers, inflation disproportionately impacts low-income households.

The narrative: The general consensus among economists and the media is that the economy is strong, and yet Americans as a whole are pretty dissatisfied with it.

Here’s economist Paul Krugman grappling with this contradiction in a New York Times column earlier this month:

Bubba’s Two Cents

The way inflation hits different groups of Americans explains the gap between the official economic story and how people feel about it. There are two sides here, and which one you see depends on your financial situation.

Related: If you want to understand the shifting economic vision of the GOP, look no further than the shrinking middle class while the upper class garners a larger share of growth:

High-earning Americans appear to be voting with their feet when it comes to states with low tax burdens. (Cato at Liberty)

New IRS data: Seven of the nine states with no income tax are in the top 15 for interstate migration of high earners (people making more than $200,000 a year).

• On the other hand, states (and one district) with some of the highest tax burdens in the country (New York, California, Washington D.C. and Illinois) all rank at the bottom.

Related: A 2021 American Enterprise Institute study found states with lower taxes attract more people.

• The top 10 states for population gain between April 2020 and July 2021 had an average max income tax of 3.8%, compared to 8% in the top 10 states for population loss.

Big picture: Over the past decade or so, red states like Texas, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and South Carolina have seen the fastest population growth in the nation.

• In 1920, the Northeast and Midwest had 60% of the U.S. population.

• Now, 52% live in the Sun Belt.