Thursday Edition: Abolish the DOE?
Plus: Americans are divided by risk tolerance.
Bubba
15 Aug
1. The Plan to End the DOE Might Be DOA
Americans might not to be too sad to see the Department of Education eliminated, as Donald Trump recently vowed to do. (Fox News)
Trump on Monday during his interview with Elon Musk:
What I’m going to do, one of the first acts – and this is where I need an Elon Musk; I need somebody that has a lot of strength and courage and smarts – I want to close up the Department of Education, move education back to the states.
A new Pew Research Center survey: A plurality (45%) of Americans view the Education Department unfavorably, compared to 44% who have a favorable opinion.
That makes the Education Department one of the least popular federal agencies in the country, ranking only above the IRS and tied with the DOJ.
Could Trump do it? Republicans have been threatening to shut down the Department of Education for 40 years, but haven’t been able to pull it off.
Doing so would almost certainly require the GOP to hold both the House and Senate — and they’d need at least 60 senators to go along with the plan to get around the filibuster.
Even if Trump and the GOP did somehow manage to abolish the DOE, there’d be more obstacles.
Rick Hess, director of Education Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute:
Keep in mind that the four biggest programs at the department are student lending, Pell Grants, IDEA, and Title I. The fact is that few policymakers, right or left, are willing to call for slashing (much less ending) federal aid for low-income students or learners with special needs. Given that, it’s a safe bet that the big programs aren’t going away. The practical effect [of eliminating the DOE] would be to move this stuff to other Cabinet agencies—many to Labor, some to Health and Human Services, civil rights enforcement to Justice, and so forth.
Bubba’s Two Cents
I share Trump and the GOP’s frustration with the state of public education in the U.S., and I think the government is responsible for a lot of the problems and inefficiencies in this area. So yeah, in theory I’m not opposed to doing away with the DOE. But I wonder if we’re wasting energy chasing solutions that are going to rile people up, but have a close to zero chance of actually happening.
2. Risky Business
In a new conversation with podcaster and political analyst Ezra Klein, data guru Nate Silver talked about how risk (and how we respond to it) is increasingly impacting American society. (The Ezra Klein Podcast)
A line from Silver’s new book on risk: “People are becoming more bifurcated in their risk tolerance and this affects everything from who we hang out with to how we vote.”
COVID: On one end of the spectrum you had people defying lockdowns at the height of the pandemic to go party with friends, and on the other end, you had the people wrapping themselves up in homemade Hazmat suits and refusing to leave their rooms.
Silver on pandemic risk: "It just seems to me we are in a world now where institutions are less trusted. Some people respond to that by saying, 'OK, I make my own rules now.' ... And some respond by withdrawing into an online world or clinging onto beliefs and experts that have lost their credibility."
Less risky youth behavior: Studies have shown Gen Zers are much less likely to drive, have sex and drink compared to older generations.
The growth of betting culture: Alongside a big crypto boom, the U.S. has also seen an explosion of sports betting and online gambling.
Chart: The New York Times
Speech: Younger Americans also tend to be more risk averse when it comes to free speech, placing a higher value on avoiding offense than on the right to speak freely.
Bubba’s Two Cents
People should set their own risk tolerance generally, but when it comes to free speech, I think we should aim higher. It's too fundamental to the American spirit—without it, we lose a core piece of who we are.
3. What’s Bugging Swing State Voters
Economic issues are top of mind for crucial battleground state voters, according to multiple recent polls (Ipsos)
A new Ipsos poll: Top concerns for voters in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada include inflation (52%), immigration (32%), and political extremism/polarization (24%).
Chart: Ipsos
A new Data for Progress poll: Swing state voters strongly favor expanding Medicare (84% of voters), increasing taxes on corporations (82%) and raising the minimum wage to $17 (70%).
Chart: Data for Progress
Related: According to a new Financial Times/University of Michigan poll, voters now trust Kamala Harris over Donald Trump on the economy.
Other polls suggest voters don't blame Harris for the current state of the economy,
Bubba’s Two Cents
We know voters’ views on the economy are going to play a huge role in deciding 2024. Americans do not have a keen view of the job Biden has done on the economy, but they don’t seem to hold his vice president responsible. Will that perception hold true under the scrutiny Harris is likely to face in the coming months?
4. Make Early Voting Great Again
Republicans may be starting to embrace early voting, despite Donald Trump's past criticism. (Washington Examiner)
Arizona: 83% of voters used early voting in the 2024 Arizona Republican Senate primary, up from 79% in the 2022 gubernatorial primary.
Among Kari Lake voters, 81% voted early in 2024, an increase from 73% in 2022.
Florida: Ahead of the August 20 primary, Republicans hold a strong lead in in-person early voting, with 141,374 ballots cast, more than double the 65,905 from Democrats.
Zoom out: There’s a wide partisan gap on early and absentee voting.
82% of Democrats support no-excuse early or absentee voting.
62% of Republicans think early or absentee voting should only be for those with a valid reason.
Support for no-excuse early voting among Republicans has dropped by 20 points since 2018.
The GOP is trying to change things: Last year, the RNC launched a "Bank Your Vote" initiative to promote early voting among Republicans.
Sen. Bill Haggerty, R-Tenn.:
To take back the White House and Senate and strengthen our House majority in 2024, Republicans must play the game by today’s rules, which means maximizing our efforts to bank votes before Election Day. We cannot afford to sacrifice most of the opportunities to bank votes in key states while Democrats run up the score.
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