Monday Edition: Kamala Honeymoon Over?

Kamala Harris’ campaign has been mostly smooth sailing, but voters’ concerns about the economy may already be rocking the boat. (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg reporter Erik Wasson:

Bubba’s Two Cents

Harris has a tough needle to thread: convince voters she can fix an economy she’s had a hand in managing for the past four years. While she’s been able to do it to this point, it’s going to be much tougher now that a) her official economic agenda is out there and open to scrutiny and b) the Trump campaign is ramping up its messaging onslaught on her record.

Has the importance of black Americans trending away from Democrats this cycle been overstated? (Good Authority)

A new Good Authority analysis: According to Cooperative Election Study data of more than 30,000 Americans per year since 2006, there is a decline in black Democratic partisanship, but it’s largely concentrated among black people who don’t vote.

• In 2008, 81% of black adults affiliated with the Democratic Party. By 2020, this dropped to 69%, per the CES.

• Democratic affiliation among black nonvoters fell from 80% in 2012 to 57% in 2020.

• Among black voters, Democratic partisanship declined modestly from 88% in 2012 to 82% in 2020.

More: Democratic presidential candidates consistently received around 90% of the Black vote from 1980 to 2020.

• In 2020, President Biden won 92% of the black vote, consistent with the trend from recent decades.

• Despite a rise in undecided black voters in 2020 preelection polls, only 2% ended up voting for Donald Trump, with the majority still supporting Democrats.

On the other hand: Young black Americans are much more open to the GOP than their older counterparts, suggesting a shift has taken place.

• Pew Research Center surveys show 17% of black voters under 50 now lean Republican, compared to 7% of those over 50.

• According to the 2024 National Black Voter Survey, 42% of black voters age 18-29 say the GOP is somewhat or extremely welcoming to them, compared to just 10% of black voters 65 or older.

Don’t be fooled by Texas’ frontier and cowboy image; the Lone Star State is quietly emerging as a leader in forward-looking fields like renewable energy and finance. (WSJ)

The trend: Texas has been steadily increasing finance and insurance jobs since 1990, now surpassing New York in these industries.

• From 1990 to 2024, Texas finance jobs grew from 324,600 to 658,600, while New York's fell from 624,200 to 544,900.

• Since 2019, finance jobs have grown 13% in Texas, 2% in New York, and 3% nationally.

Why? Texan cities like Dallas offer lower housing costs, plentiful space for new facilities, central location, low taxes, and a friendly business environment, attracting financial firms from other states.

What economic analyst Ray Perryman told the Wall Street Journal:

Bubba’s Two Cents

Texas is redefining what a red state can be. Its backing of renewable energy shows conservatives aren’t anti-progress, while its business-friendly approach shows liberals that free market policies can drive success.

38 states have legalized sports betting since a 2018 Supreme Court ruling, and a new study suggests there have been some clear downsides. (The American Saga)

UCLA and USC researchers: States that legalize sports betting see a small but significant decrease in average credit scores.

• Legalization of online/mobile gambling results in a credit score drop three times larger than traditional betting.

• In states with legalized online gambling, there’s a 28% increase in the likelihood of bankruptcy and an 8% increase in debt collection amounts.

• Increased rates of auto loan delinquencies are linked to sports betting legalization.

The trend: Gambling, whether it be in the form of sports betting or online, has been exploding in the U.S. in recent years.

Bubba’s Two Cents

In recent years, there’s been a clash between America’s values of individuality and freedom and worries that too much freedom could harm society, seen in efforts to regulate betting, gambling, and restrict access to pornography.