Thursday Edition: Schools and Presidential Candidates
Plus: What does the data say about the media's Kamala coverage?
1. Kamala vs. Trump on Education
Where does each 2024 candidate stand on schools and learning? (Education Week)
Kamala Harris: Democrats on Monday ratified their 2024 platform, which gives us a glimpse into how they plan to govern on education.
Harris and her fellow Dems will push for universal pre-K, bolster vocational training programs, decrease reliance on standardized tests and focus on improving teacher workplace conditions.
Democrats are also touting the additional 14,000 counselors and social workers hired under the Biden administration.
What Dems’ platform says about school choice:
We oppose the use of private-school vouchers, tuition tax credits, opportunity scholarships, and other schemes that divert taxpayer-funded resources away from public education. Public tax dollars should never be used to discriminate.
Donald Trump: The former president’s Agenda47 plan lays out his platform on education, which stands in pretty stark contrast to Harris’ agenda.
Abolish teacher tenure: Trump wants to end teacher tenure in K-12 schools, reward good teachers with merit pay, and let parents vote for school principals.
Universal school choice: He supports allowing parents to choose public, private, or religious schools for their children, with states leading the "school choice revolution."
Patriotic education: Trump plans to reinstate the 1776 Commission and create a body to certify teachers who promote patriotic values.
Bubba’s Two Cents
Unsurprisingly, this is an area of great policy difference between the two candidates. I think one way to think about it is Harris is all about bolstering the status quo (hiring more non-teacher staff, expanding the scope of public school education via universal pre-K) whereas Trump wants to remake it. A key question is whether the status quo needs changing, and the chart below pretty much captures my feelings on that.
Read more about the state of public education in America in our School Edition, which we published a few months back.
2. Friendly Media
Republicans have accused the media of showering Kamala Harris with glowing coverage since she entered the 2024 race, and new data seems to back up their criticisms. (Fox News)
A Media Research Center survey: Harris has received 84% positive coverage on ABC, CBS and NBC evening newscasts since becoming the Democratic nominee for president.
In contrast, Donald Trump’s coverage has been 89% negative during the same period.
Harris also received 66% more airtime (221 minutes) than Trump (133 minutes) on the three networks.
The running mates: There have also been notable differences in how the press has covered Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, Republicans’ vice presidential nominee.
62% of the coverage of Walz has been positive.
Coverage of Vance has been almost universally negative (92%).
Related: Harris and Walz’s net favorability ratings have spiked, while Vance’s have declined significantly.
Walz:
Vance:
Bubba’s Two Cents
Is there a correlation between media coverage and the spike/decline in favorability ratings for Vance, Harris and Walz (Trump’s favorability ratings have increased slightly but he’s already so well-defined as a candidate I consider him an outlier)? You might say that Walz’s likability, Vance’s unlikability or the political circumstances of Harris’ ascendance explain the trend. And while some or all of those things may be factors, I say you’re kidding yourself if you don’t think the press has also had a significant effect.
For more examples of how the media’s been pretty sympathetic to Harris, check this out.
3. The Gender Gap in 2024
Is the hype around a growing gender gap in politics reflected in the 2024 election so far? (NBC News)
Chart: NBC News
A new analysis by NBC News’ Steve Kornacki: Kamala Harris leads with women and Donald Trump leads with men in 4 out of 5 major national polls.
In these polls, the gender gap ranges from 7 to 22 points.
However, those numbers are in line with past elections.
The gender gaps between Harris and Trump are bigger than they were between Trump and President Biden.
Zoom in: The gender gaps are much wider than past elections if you focus on swing states.
Chart: NBC News
Kornacki:
Is something happening in the states, in some of the battleground states, that's not necessarily happening nationally? Are there state-specific effects? They get ads, they get campaign activity, they get things happening in swing states that don't happen in a lot of the rest of the states. Maybe that's affecting the gender gap. … Do we keep seeing state-specific gender gaps of anything approaching that scale? Because if we do, it's new, it's different, and it's hugely significant.
The impact: In 2020, 68.4% of women turned out to vote, compared to 65% of men.
Women made up 54% of the electorate in the past election.
Is the future of politics gendered? We’re especially seeing this trend play out among young Americans.
Young men supported Trump over Biden by 14 points in 2024, a substantial shift from their 15-point support for Biden in 2020.
Young women continue to support Democrats by large margins, with a 34-point lead for Democratic control of Congress.
When it comes to specific policies, young women prioritize issues like abortion rights, student loan forgiveness and climate change more than young men.
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