Monday Edition: Kamala's Populist Posturing
Plus: Do Dems have a man problem?
Bubba
26 Aug
1. Kamala’s Populist Posturing
Kamala Harris' newly unveiled economic agenda is causing a stir, but it's unclear how committed she is to the most controversial parts of the vision. (Noahpinion)
The latest: In response to blowback over her stance on “price gouging,” Harris’ campaign has clarified she doesn’t support price controls or Elizabeth Warren’s 2022 bill, which would have expanded the FTC’s authority and made price gouging illegal.
Political journalist Noah Smith’s take:
My objections [to Harris’ economic policies] were based on the assumption that Harris was endorsing Warren’s ideas about price controls; instead, it seems like she’s simply throwing out some populist rhetoric. Which means I’m no longer worried about this issue. Unlike the GOP, the Democrats have a candidate who can be relied upon to listen to the relevant experts and avoid taking extreme and dangerous policy steps.
Related: Harris’ controversial endorsement of a tax on unrealized capital gains stirred up a hornet’s nest this week, but as Axios business editor Dan Primack explained, it seems pretty unlikely that the proposal would become a reality.
According to Primack, Dems would have to take control of both chambers of Congress and the presidency, “to have any shot of enacting this rule.”
Also, the tax plan isn’t a proposal Harris has explicitly put forth — it’s contained in a section of President Biden’s 250-page budget proposal.
Bubba’s Two Cents
We all know how Harris is avoiding the media. Now she’s reversing course on some economic policies while piggybacking off of Biden’s program instead of releasing a version that’s wholly her own. This seems like it’s all part of a strategy to test the waters with voters before fully committing to an agenda. Make what you will of the strategy - some will call it pragmatic, and others will say it’s cynical.
2. The Man Problem
A new poll suggests Democrats aren’t oblivious to the fact that their party may not be as welcoming to certain demographics. (Deseret News)
The data: Bubba News reader “Kevin T.” tipped us off to some insights from the latest Deseret News/HarrisX national survey.
According to the poll, Democratic voters believe the Democratic Party is less welcoming to white people relative to other ethnic groups and less welcoming to men compared to women.
For instance, 78% of Dems say their party is more welcoming to women than the GOP.
But only 41% of Democrats say the same when it comes to men.
Chart: Deseret News via “Kevin T.”
Zoom in: Critics, including some liberals, have questioned the tone of Democrats’ rhetoric toward white and male voters.
Zoom out: Polls have shown that the gender gap in political preferences has widened over the past few decades.
Related: CNN anchor Dana Bash argued last week that Democrats are using “male figures” like Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and second gentleman Doug Emhoff to try to bridge the gender gap.
They are doing so in trying to put forward male figures, Tim Walz being one of them, Doug Emhoff last night, who can speak to men out there who might not be the sort of testosterone-laden, gun-toting kind of guy who wants to listen to Hulk Hogan and the kind of players that came out at the RNC. Or might want to listen to that, but also, in addition, understand that it’s OK in 2024 to be a man comfortable in his own skin who supports a woman. And that’s something that they really are trying to work on with male voters beyond the base.
Bubba’s Two Cents
Of course, it’s natural for political parties to be composed of different coalitions and factions, and that might result in catering to specific demographics over others. Both parties’ top line strategies in recent years have led to swathes of disaffected and disgruntled voters. What I will say is, from my perspective, people who are turning away from the GOP are doing so mostly because they’re turned off for ideological reasons. Whereas the Democrats seem to have a problem with various identity groups (men, white Americans, Jews, black men, Christians) feeling like they’ve been pushed out of the party.
3. Will the Real Incumbent Please Stand Up?
Should voters view Kamala Harris as an incumbent candidate? (The Atlantic)
The trend: In a new essay for The Atlantic, journalist Derek Thompson observes that there’s an anti-incumbency wave taking place around the world.
But according to Thompson, Harris “scrambles the concept of incumbency advantage and disadvantage”:
Fresh face or incumbent? She is the former, and also the latter, and perhaps both, and sometimes neither, all at once. Her relationship to Joe Biden exists in a quantum superposition of political convenience. When it is useful to claim credit for something that happened under the Biden administration, one hears the inclusive “we.” Where she intends to chart a new path, I is the appropriate pronoun.
GOP commentator and CNN contributor Scott Jennings put it more bluntly last week:
The gaffe that I still see in all of these speeches, as good as they were, is that [Harris is] in the White House right now. Democrats have controlled the White House for 12 of the last 16 years. …
So to me, that's still the glaring hole of this campaign that hasn't yet been solved at this convention. How do you explain all the problems that will be solved, by the person who is currently in there, for the past 3.5 years, that is supposed to already be working on solving them?
Bubba’s Two Cents
The latest polling is mixed as to how much blame voters assign Harris for the state of the economy. Donald Trump has a presidential record and is extremely well-defined as a candidate. So you can see how the Harris campaign could think there’s an opening to position her as the candidate for change. It still strikes me as brazen as all hell, though.
4. Everybody Wants to Be the Underdog
Here’s a contradiction: big money donations are increasing as Democrats and Republicans both claim to be fighting for the little guy against entrenched elite interests. (Barron’s)
Chart: Barron’s
A new Barron’s analysis of OpenSecrets data: Big donations from wealthy individuals make up 16% of all contributions in 2024, up from 14.6% in 2022 and 9.5% in 2020.
The top 100 donors have contributed $1.2 billion so far in the 2024 campaign cycle, out of the total $7.2 billion raised.
Billionaire Timothy Mellon is the top contributor in 2024, donating over $150 million, including $50 million to Donald Trump’s PAC in the aftermath of his conviction.
Big picture: Research suggests wealthy individuals and businesses have an outsized impact on U.S. policy.
Bubba’s Two Cents
Discussion of the status of “the elites” aside, it should be shocking to absolutely no one that influential people have influence. Democrats enjoy huge institutional advantages over Republicans (in media, academia, unions and nonprofits) and their core voting bloc is increasingly made up of highly-educated white Americans. And on the flip side, a growing group of the wealthy and connected, like Elon Musk, David Sacks, and Marc Andreessen, among others, are putting their money behind Donald Trump.
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