Tuesday Edition: Comparing Economic Records
Plus: America's big four addictions.
Bubba
27 Aug
SpaceX's Polaris Dawn mission is a private spaceflight backed by Jared Isaacman, the billionaire founder of payments platform company Shift4. During the mission scheduled for Tuesday, the astronauts will attempt the first spacewalk by a private company. (Getty Images)
1. Comparing Economic Records
Donald Trump and his supporters believe there’s no debate over which presidential candidate has the edge on the economy. (Axios)
The latest: Trump’s zeroing in on negative news about the economy, which tops the list of voters’ most important issues.
Trump during a speech in North Carolina earlier this month:
I gave [Kamala Harris and Joe Biden] an economic miracle, and they quickly turned it into an economic nightmare.
A Dispatch analysis of Trump and Biden’s economic records: While economists generally agree that the data paints a largely positive picture of Biden’s economy, there are some weak points relative to Trump.
Housing (mortgage rates up 132%), grocery costs (up nearly 21%) and real hourly wages (down 2.2%) are just some of the areas where Biden’s record is arguably not as strong as his predecessor’s.
On the other hand: Economists have credited Biden’s infrastructure spending and investments in semi-conductor manufacturing and green initiatives with boosting the economy and avoiding a recession.
Chart: Bloomberg
Biden’s economy has also exceeded GDP growth projections.
And Biden’s been credited with helping unemployment return to pre-pandemic levels.
Chart: Vox
Bubba’s Two Cents
Comparing presidents’ economic records can be a complex task even without a pandemic muddling the data. But the bottom line is voters don’t like the current state of the economy. However, they also don’t fully blame Harris for it. Over the next few months, Trump’s probably going to spend a lot of time and energy trying to change that.
2. Four Addictions
Can a good share of America’s structural problems be traced back to “unsustainable dependencies?” (Age of Disruption)
Connecting the dots: According to a new analysis by political consultant Bruce Mehlman, the U.S. is concerningly reliant on 1) debt, 2) China, 3) digital technology and 4) easy money.
1) Debt
The U.S. is expected to spend more on interest payments than on defense for the foreseeable future and annual deficits are predicted to exceed $2 trillion each year over the next decade.
2) China
Despite the U.S.-China trade deficit falling to its lowest level since 2010, the world is growing increasingly reliant on Chinese goods.
Case in point: According to a recent study, a large number of key nutrients for U.S. baby formula are imported from China.
3) Digital
People, especially young people, are spending a lot of time online and less time with their friends.
Related: According to a lawsuit filed against Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, internal documents suggest the company designed its products to capitalize on teens’ vulnerable psychology.
4) Easy money
Historically low interest rates encouraged borrowing, but housing has now gotten less affordable.
And household credit card debt reached a record high this year.
Mehlman’s two cents:
The interplay between these issues makes solving each harder. Policies that might address any single “addiction” likely worsen the others. For example, to reduce dependencies on China we’d spend more on defense & R&D (worsening deficits), penalize unfair trade via tariffs & export controls (increasing inflation, which tightens monetary policy) and accelerate tech champions (rather than protecting consumers or aggressively policing tech monopolies).
3. Kamala’s Gains
Kamala Harris has rebuilt a lot of the old Democratic Party coalition that had turned away under President Biden, but will it be enough to win her the presidency? (Slow Boring)
A recent Politico analysis: Harris made double-digit gains with black and Hispanic voters, helping bring states like Georgia and Arizona back into play for Democrats.
She’s also widened the gender gap, gaining significant support among women, who generally vote more consistently than men.
Harris has recovered to traditional Democratic margins with young voters, following a massive swing in her favor after replacing President Biden.
Journalist Matt Yglesias’ take on how she did it:
We’ve written about this before at Slow Boring, but Democrats’ leftward drift after 2012 was largely a psyop staged by left-wing advocacy groups who convinced the party that left-wing policy stances were key to mobilizing young and nonwhite voters. What happened since Harris took over is precisely that she regained ground Biden had lost with young and nonwhite voters based on her better vibes, while doing none of the leftist messaging stuff.
Caveat: For all the good vibes Dems have going for them, polling suggests this is still an extremely close race.
4. Choose Your Fighter/Therapist
Two speakers at the RNC and DNC reveal the two major parties’ opposing approaches to messaging. (Compact)
Compact co-founder Matthew Schmitz on Oprah’s DNC appearance:
Oprah's presence is important.
The Democratic Party, reflecting the broader American culture, is very therapeutic. I think it's actually much more effective at appealing to the therapeutic currents in American culture than the Republican Party is, and this is just a strength that it has.
I'm skeptical of that therapeutic language … but the Democratic Party is very good at it … talking about acceptance and people being able to be who they really are, and us all being considerate and kind to each other, and Oprah hit those themes really well.
What Oprah said at the DNC:
We are not so different from our neighbors. When a house is on fire, we don’t ask about the homeowner’s race or religion. We don’t wonder who their partner is or how they voted. No, we just try to do the best we can to save them. And if the place happens to belong to a childless cat lady, well, we try to get that cat out too. …
And it seems to me that, at school and at home, somebody did a beautiful job of showing this young girl [Kamala Harris] how to challenge the people at the top and empower the people at the bottom. They showed her how to look at the world and see not just what is, but what can be. They instilled in her a passion for justice and freedom and the glorious fighting spirit necessary to pursue that passion.
What UFC president Dana White said at the RNC:
I know President Trump is a fighter. … I’m in the tough guy business, and this man is the toughest, most resilient human being that I’ve ever met in my life. …
In my mind, the choice is clear. But this election, we all get to choose. I know I’m going to choose strength and security. I know I’m going to choose opportunity and prosperity. I know I’m going to choose real American leadership and a real American badass. And I’m not telling you what choice to make, and I’m not telling you what to think. I’m telling you what I know. I know America needs a strong leader, and the world needs a strong America.
Bubba’s Two Cents
Oprah and White’s convention remarks exemplify the pros and cons of each parties’ rhetorical styles. Republicans’ tough-talking, no nonsense approach can be refreshingly clear-eyed in an age of spin and PR speak. However, it can also veer into gratuitous cruelty. Dems’ focus on inclusion and acceptance can stir up a lot of warm and fuzzy feelings in voters, but can also come off as kind of pie-in-the-sky.
Did you like an item in today’s edition?
Forward it to a friend
Screenshot an item and text it to them
Direct your friend to https://www.bubba.news/