The Most Crucial Demographic

Author

Bubba
05 Sep

The Most Crucial Demographic

The fate of this year’s presidential election may rest in the hands of undecided voters in battleground regions. (NYT)

Chart: The New York Times

The numbers: Per recent polls, 18% of American voters remain undecided on Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

  • This group tends to be less white, younger, more male and more working-class than committed voters.

New York Times senior writer David Leonhardt:

If you assume that most swing voters are disaffected liberals because of their youth and diversity, however, you will be wrong. … Overall, swing voters are more likely to identify as conservative than liberal, a potential advantage for Trump. Most swing voters, not surprisingly, consider themselves moderates…

What do they care about? Polls suggest swing voters’ top three issues are inflation, jobs and immigration.

Chart: The New York Times

Bubba’s Two Cents

I’ve got two thoughts here:

1) It’s interesting to see shifts in the electorate playing out. In past elections, you’d think that a demographic of younger, more diverse and more working-class voters would be a lock for the Democratic candidate. That is no longer the case.

2) If these voters are making their decisions based on the economy and immigration, that seems like a bad sign for Harris.