Some Hard Realities About Tough Prison Sentences

The “restorative justice”-supporting prosecutor in the Daniel Penny case has prompted debate about whether the system should be harder on the relatively small share of the population committing most crime. (Fox News)

The latest: Concerns over Penny’s prosecution led critics this week to dig up Assistant Manhattan District Attorney Dafna Yoran’s record, which includes boasting about getting a reduced sentence for a mugger who killed 87-year-old former college professor Young Kun Kim in 2018.

• Yoran once said she felt “sorry” for the past “trauma” experienced by Kim’s killer, Matthew Lee, and that influenced her decision to seek a lighter sentence.

• A Go Magazine profile of Yoran published this year described her as having “successfully spearheaded the first Restorative Justice case in a NYC homicide.”

The data: Research has repeatedly shown giving habitual and violent offenders more severe sentences is an effective way of reducing crime.

• A 2012 study by researchers in the Netherlands found that increasing sentences for repeat offenders by tenfold reduced theft by 25%.

• Between 1978 and 1990, each additional year of prison time in the U.S. prevented 14 serious crimes, according to a 2012 study.

• A 1998 study published in the National Bureau of Economic Research found that California's Proposition 8, which mandated longer sentences for people convicted of serious crimes like rape and homicide, reduced targeted crimes by 8% within three years and by 20% within seven years.

Zoom in: Data suggests most crime, especially serious crime, is committed by a pretty small group of people.

• An overwhelming share of people in prison have multiple prior arrests.

• According to one analysis, less than 1% of the U.S. population is responsible for at least 25% of homicides.

• In 2022, Atlanta police officials said just 1,000 people were responsible for 40% of the city’s crime.

Bubba’s Two Cents

The U.S. has one of the world’s highest incarceration rates. But the public often has a skewed perspective on why people are actually in prison. A 2016 Vox/Morning Consult poll found most Americans mistakenly believe 50% of prisoners are incarcerated for drugs, while the true figure is 15%. More than 1 in 4 prisoners are locked up for the worst types of crimes: murder, manslaughter or sexual assault. Critics of mass incarceration, like Fordham Law School professor John Pfaff, will often say the quiet part out loud: If you want to end mass incarceration, that means lighter sentences for violent criminals.