Friday Edition: The Vance Effect

J.D. Vance, the GOP senator from Ohio and running mate to Donald Trump, has an undeniably compelling personal narrative, but he also seems to be kind of off-putting to a decent-sized slice of the electorate. (Punchbowl News)

The latest: According to Punchbowl News’ latest Canvass survey, 79% of senior GOP staffers and K Street leaders don’t believe Vance was the best vice presidential choice to help Trump win the election.

More: But it’s not just D.C. insiders who are lukewarm on Vance, whose comments about “childless cat ladies” back in 2021 resurfaced this week and stirred up a minor controversy on social media.

According to an analysis of polling data by CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten, Vance’s post-RNC convention VP nominee favorability ratings are the lowest since 1980.

The narrative: There’s been a push from Democrats and the media to peg Vance as a “woman-hater.”

Bubba’s Two Cents

You could say the GOP’s actions have driven women out of the party, and you could say the same for Democrats and men, and you’d probably be more than a little right in both cases. But just focusing on the GOP for the moment, figures in the party too often couch their messaging in terms that are only relatable to people who spend their days watching over-the-top ‘alpha male’ videos, like from Andrew Tate. Vance, a dad of three who regularly speaks fondly of his wife, could’ve made his point by talking about how faith drives his belief in the importance of strong families. Instead, he’s stuck having to defend himself over off-color remarks he made years ago. As Ronald Reagan famously said, “If you're explaining, you're losing.”

Recently published research underscores a major political theme: working-class white Americans are getting left behind by a changing economy. (NYT)

A new Harvard study: The income gap between poor black and white Americans has narrowed by about 30%.

• At age 27, white Americans' average income has decreased by $2,050 from the previous generation.

• At age 27, black Americans' average income has increased by $1,420 from the previous generation.

• The study found that only whites from high-income families have seen their mobility improve, with the decline limited to the white working class.

New York Times reporter German Lopez:

Bubba’s Two Cents

There’s been a reorganization of the way the economy works, and there have been winners and losers. The political movements, especially on the right, that have sprung up in recent years are in large part a reaction to that reality. For some color on this, here’s what filmmaker Michael Moore, who hates Donald Trump, said about him in 2016:

“Whether Trump means it or not is kind of irrelevant because he's saying the things to people who are hurting, and that's why every beaten-down, nameless, forgotten working stiff who used to be part of what was called the middle class loves Trump. He is the human Molotov cocktail that they've been waiting for, the human hand grenade that they can legally throw into the system that stole their lives from them.”

Republicans seem to think Vice President Kamala Harris’ liberal record should make her easy pickings in the 2024 presidential election, but are they right? (The Economist)

According to a GovTrack analysis based on bills sponsored/co-sponsored by Harris, she was one of the most liberal Democrats in the senate.

A new YouGov/Economist analysis shows the vice president is closing the favorability gap with Donald Trump.

RealClearPolitics senior elections analyst Sean Trende: