The Republican Edition

As the GOP has changed, so have its voters. (Pew Research Center)

Republicans are becoming more diverse: 79% are white, down from 93% two decades ago. Hispanic, black, and Asian voters now make up 15% of Republicans.

They’re becoming more conservative:

They’re divided over abortion: 57% believe it should be illegal in all or most cases; 41% say it should be legal in all or most cases.

• Meanwhile, more than 8 in 10 Democrats say abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

Gender and the GOP: Men are trending toward the GOP, while women have been leaning more Democratic.

• When you zoom in on the data, a clearer profile emerges —single women are the most anti-Trump and divorced men are the biggest Trump loyalists.

Working class realignment: Half of white voters without college degrees now identify as Republican, up from 40% in 2016.

Republican confidence in nearly every major U.S. institution has fallen in recent years:

Big business fatigue: GOP voters have gotten less bullish on corporations, globalism and markets.

• Support for international trade among Republicans fell from 78% in 2016 to 72% in March.

The GOP has all the momentum, a big change from the party’s political circumstances last year.

Then: The Republican Party was plagued by dysfunction and infighting.

• After a bitter fight to get elected House Speaker in January of 2023, Kevin McCarthy was ousted from his role after just nine months by a faction of rowdy Republican hardliners.

• Dissent within the GOP ranks continued with McCarthy’s successor, Mike Johnson, who was also subject to removal threats from conservative rebels.

• The GOP presidential primary was brutal, often resolving into bitter public spats between Donald Trump supporters and Republicans who backed alternatives like Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.

Now: There’s been a bit of a role reversal, as Democrats have been thrown into chaos over internal disputes over who should lead the party.

• Horrifying as it was, the assassination attempt on Trump united Republicans in Congress and temporarily silenced his GOP critics.

• On the other hand, Democrats are deeply divided on whether to replace their presidential nominee, Joe Biden, who is flailing in the polls while Americans’ confidence in his mental fitness plummets.

Bubba’s Two Cents

Timing is everything in politics. The GOP’s political fortunes improved greatly thanks to some fumbles by Democrats (nominating a guy that doesn’t look to be all there) and some sheer chance (a nutjob tried to murder Trump and ended up getting a somewhat divided party to rally around him). But the election is still a few months away, and circumstances can change quickly.

There are two major trends happening in the Trump-era Republican Congress.

Turnover: Republican members of Congress are calling it quits at an unusually high rate, with many of them citing party dysfunction as a reason.

• CNN reported in February that 23 GOP lawmakers in the 118th Congress had resigned or decided not to seek reelection.

• In November, Axios reported that the pace of Congressional retirements had hit a record high.

Shifting right: Comparatively moderate Republicans are being replaced by more conservative lawmakers.

Bubba’s Two Cents

These trends are reflections of broader shifts taking place in the party. Politico congressional reporter Burgess Everett put it into perspective in March: “Many senior Republicans who served as establishment bulwarks against [Trump’s] influence are retiring or ceding power … And MAGA recruits are filtering into Congress every two years.”

A Fox News appearance used to be the end-all, be-all for GOP lawmakers who wanted to get their message out, but that’s changing thanks to shifts in conservative media and the broader industry.

Changing habits: While Fox still commands major attention and eyeballs, it’s no longer the only player in the game — news consumers are increasingly opting for alternatives to traditional media or getting their information directly from social platforms like X/Twitter, TikTok and YouTube.

A big trend: The cable industry is in decline as viewers, especially younger ones, switch over to streaming services.

The new normal:

• Tucker Carlson has made the bet he doesn’t need Fox and runs his own show direct-to-consumer.

• Ben Shapiro’s Daily Wire has become a powerhouse in conservative media.

• Independent influencers with strong personal brands like Candace Owens, Charlie Kirk, ‘Libs Of TikTok’, or even the anonymous ‘End Wokeness’ command huge social media followings.

• The Ruthless Podcast, featuring former McConnell staffers, and All-In, featuring venture capital veterans, regularly interview top Republicans.

Summing it up: This week, Donald Trump Jr. took a dig at Fox News founder Rupert Murdoch’s supposedly waning influence.

• Trump Jr.: “It's not what it used to be."

• Trump Jr. also said Republicans no longer have to “bend the knee” to the network.

Bubba’s Two Cents

I think that right-wing media has a lot to improve upon. There is way too much emphasis on editorializing, way too many personalities focused on brand-building, and a lot of it can be easily-dismissed as hysterical or unserious. In my opinion, the right would be well-served to invest in media outlets that report news and provide audiences with useful information to compete with the likes of the liberal mainstream media that has a gargantuan distribution advantage over the right. The opportunity is clearly there, as those outlets mostly operate with a herd mentality and have generally lost the trust of audiences, and the outrage influencers like Candace Owens or Dan Bongino simply don’t or can’t move the needle beyond their silos.

Compare the speaker line-up of the 2012 Republican National Convention with this year’s event and you’ll see clear signs of a radically transformed party.

A partial list of RNC 2024 speakers:

Tucker Carlson: former Fox News host and political firebrand.

Amber Rose: rap model, pro-abortion feminist organizer of the “SlutWalk.”

Sean O’Brien: president of the Teamsters, one of the largest and most influential labor unions in the country.

Dana White: Ultimate Fighting Championship president.

RNC 2012:

Condoleezza Rice: former secretary of state under George W. Bush.

Paul Ryan: then-Wisconsin Republican congressmen and running mate to Mitt Romney.

Jeb Bush: former Republican governor of Florida.

Clint Eastwood: actor and director.

Bubba’s Two Cents

Looking at these two lists, the first thing you might notice is how the GOP has become much less buttoned-up since the Romney era. Also, the fiercely pro-free market GOP of 2012 wouldn’t be caught dead hosting a labor leader like O’Brien. Then there’s the players themselves — Bush and Ryan would be heckled out of the building before making it to the RNC 2024 stage.