Friday Edition: Biden and the Black Vote
Plus: Does the new GOP have an answer on Social Security?
Bubba
19 Jul
1. Biden’s Pitch to Black Voters
President Biden appeared to be trying to shore up black voter support this week, as polls show Democrats are losing ground with the community.
Biden addressed black voters at the annual NAACP Convention and also sat down for an interview with Black Entertainment Television.
The president contrasted his policies with Donald Trump’s, touted his administration’s record with minority-owned business and investments into historically black colleges.
A couple of his remarks, which came amid widespread scrutiny over his mental sharpness, drew special attention.
Responding to Trump mentioning “black jobs” at last month’s presidential debate: “Folks, I know what a black job is — it's the vice president of the United States.”
Biden during his BET interview: "Look at the heat I’m getting because I named the secretary of defense, the black man. I named [Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson] –– I mean, because of the people I’ve named.”
Critics have accused Biden of superficially pandering to the black community while also taking its support for granted.
Biden in 2020 during an appearance on “The Breakfast Club,” a popular New York City radio show: “If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.”
Conservative activist Madeline Brame to Fox News last month:
Every other word to come out of [Biden’s] mouth – black this, black that, black this, black that – like the only reason why we made these so-called accomplishments is because of the color of our skin, has nothing to do with our intellect, has nothing to do with the merits of nothing.
J.D., a black Arizonan interviewed by The New York Times on the biggest thing Democrats misunderstand about black Americans:
It’s the pandering to the black race, thinking that we are looking for a handout and feeling sorry for us, when we’re capable and culpable. And I feel like the pandering of ‘all you broken-down people, you need us, and here we are; we’re going to help you’ — it’s not a respectful tone or manner.
The polls: In the 2020 election, Biden received overwhelming support from black voters, with 92% backing him, per Pew Research Center.
But recent Pew surveys show just 64% of black Americans support Biden in the 2024 election.
Bubba’s Two Cents
Conservatives have been making the case for a long time now that Democrats’ outlook on the black community is patronizing. But that hadn’t really made much of a dent in black support for the Dems –– until now, it seems. It really feels like a shift has occurred –– not among a majority but certainly a significant minority –– where Democrats’ intense focus on identity is hurting the party instead of helping it with voters of color.
The Republican Party under Donald Trump (and his new running mate J.D. Vance) has become adamantly opposed to touching Social Security, but that tendency might eventually clash with the realities of the system. (Forbes)
Vance in an interview with The New York Times last month, responding to projections that say Social Security will become insolvent in about 10 years:
Take those seven million prime-age men not in the labor force. Those people are supported, very often, by public resources. You shift millions of those men from not working to working; you increase wages across the board; you increase tariffs; and I think that you buy yourself a whole hell of a lot more than the nine or 10 years that the actuaries say that we have.
You get more revenue, yes, from tariffs, but from more people being in the labor force, from higher productivity growth, from higher wages, from transitioning young people who are not working into the work force.
American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Andrew Biggs responding to Vance this week:
The Social Security’s actuaries don’t model precisely what Vance is discussing. But the actuaries do estimate the effects of real wages growing by 1.74% annually instead of the baseline assumption of 1.14%, which is itself higher than the 0.95% rate the U.S. has seen since 1960.
… And that dramatically higher rate of real wage growth extends the life of the combined Social Security trust funds by only one year, from 2035 to 2036, and reduces the long-term funding gap by around one-third. And even that likely overstates the benefits of Vance’s own policy, which would essentially be a one-time increase in the U.S. labor force participation rate, not dramatically higher economic growth for the next 75 years.
How we got here: Data from the nonpartisan research group Free the Facts lays out the nuts and bolts of the Social Security system’s long-term outlook.
An explosion in beneficiaries: In 1940, fewer than 250,000 Americans received Social Security benefits.
In 2023, 58.6 million Americans received benefits.
Less people paying into the system, more beneficiaries: In 1945, there were 15 workers funding each retiree's benefits.
In 2022, there were less than three.
There’s already a revenue shortfall: Since 2010, Social Security has paid out more in benefits than it collects in taxes.
In 2022, benefits cost the U.S. $1.48 trillion, resulting in a $150 billion shortfall.
Bubba’s Two Cents
Proposing cuts to Social Security is political suicide. 79% of Americans oppose such cuts, according to a recent AP-NORC poll. And you can understand why people are outraged at the prospect of slashing such an important benefit that millions of Americans rely on, especially when the government’s wasting billions of dollars every year. But the fact of the matter is the system’s likely not sustainable for much longer without big changes.
3. What Do We Expect From Government
Now that the GOP’s head in a populist direction, both parties are arguably becoming more comfortable with expanding the role of government in the economy –– but what do citizens want? (Gallup)
A hot take: Manhattan Institute senior fellow Brian Riedl suggested in a recent X/Twitter post that dissatisfaction with supply-side economics is a product of unrealistic expectations.
What Riedl is reacting to: Republicans who are less deferential to free markets –– like vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance and his fellow senators, Marco Rubio of Florida and Josh Hawley of Missouri –– are gaining influence in the party.
Conservative economist Oren Cass in a recent podcast interview with Ezra Klein:
You have to be willing to put constraints around the American market such that we can have a relatively free American market, or you're going to leave the American market totally exposed to global forces and then on the back end going to have to intervene all over the place.
Do citizens want more intervention? Per a Gallup poll from October, since President Biden took office the share of Americans who believe the government is “doing too much” to solve problems has surged to 54% and 57% of Americans think the government has too much power.
Similarly, a plurality (44%) of Americans think the government’s doing too much regulation of business and industry.
Chart: Gallup
An interesting data point: Concerns about the level of government activity spike whenever a Democrat is in the Oval Office.
Chart: Gallup
Bubba’s Two Cents
I think it’s funny to note that while Republican voters tend to be the ones who are most concerned about government doing too much, they’re trending toward electing candidates who want to get the government more involved –– at least when it comes to the economy.
4. How Much Does Illegal Immigration Cost Us?
A new analysis cuts against economic narratives about illegal immigrants from both the left and right. (National Affairs)
Steven Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies, in a new National Affairs essay:
A fair read of the evidence indicates that illegal immigrants are almost certainly a net fiscal drain, but not because they are illegal per se. Nor is it because they are freeloaders or welfare cheats, or because they don't pay any taxes.
The reason is that a very large share of illegal immigrants have modest levels of education, which results in modest incomes and tax payments, even when they are paid on the books. Their generally low incomes also allow many of them to qualify for means-tested welfare programs, which they often receive on behalf of native-born children.
In other words, illegal immigrants are a net fiscal drain on public budgets for the same reasons that legal immigrants and native-born Americans with low levels of education are: They receive more in benefits from the system than they pay into it.
The numbers: Illegal immigrantscost taxpayers roughly $42 billion annually, according to Center for Immigration studies estimates.
59% of illegal immigrant households use welfare programs compared to 39% of native-born households.
70% of illegal immigrants lack education beyond high school, compared to 36% of native-born Americans.
Educating children of illegal immigrants costs about $68 billion annually.
Medical treatment for uninsured illegal immigrants costs around $7 billion annually.
Bubba’s Two Cents
Immigration is going to be a key issue - if not the top issue - in the 2024 election. As I see it, Republicans want to stop immigration (many even want mass deportation), while Democrats want to invest in getting immigrants through the processing system faster and more efficiently. Conservatives say liberals are just trying to import voters, and liberals accuse conservatives of being xenophobic. As these charts demonstrate, immigration is a rising concern for Americans and they trust Trump over Biden on the issue.:
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