Monday Edition: Trump v. Kamala
Plus: Some advice for teachers unions.
Bubba
22 Jul
1. A Temperature Check in 5 Charts
You might’ve heard the news — President Biden has dropped out of the 2024 race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
Perspective: While there will inevitably be an avalanche of commentary and data in the coming weeks, here are a few recent surveys that temperature check the moment.
Harris performs better than all other Democrats against Donald Trump (although she still loses), according to a recent CNN/SSRS poll.
The vice president’s approval ratings are underwater.
It’s likely Harris would be an upgrade over Biden with black voters in swing states.
Polling suggests Harris has the edge over Biden with a few other key demographics, including women and younger voters.
There are also some worrying signs for Harris, such as only one-third of voters believing she’s qualified to be president.
Bubba’s Two Cents
A big question on everyone’s mind is whether Biden dropping out will reignite Democrats’ enthusiasm for 2024. Early returns are promising…
…but will this last?
2. Teachers Unions Should Keep Their Eye on the Ball
Teachers unions keep finding themselves at the center of political controversy. (The Free Press)
The latest: Members of the American Federation of Teachers, one of the largest teachers unions in the country, are fighting amongst themselves over a series of anti-Israel resolutions.
The resolutions, which were proposed by AFT members, call on the U.S. to halt all military aid to Israel, “stop enabling genocide” and accuse Israel of “apartheid.”
In response, other AFT members have written an anonymous letter calling on the union to drop the resolutions and “avoid the public stain of antisemitism.”
Also: Chicago Public Schools used temporary federal pandemic funds to cover regular, ongoing expenses instead of just temporary needs.
Now that these pandemic funds are depleted, CPS is asking Illinois for an additional $1.1 billion to cover the shortfall.
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker last week rejected this request, saying it’s not the state’s responsibility to cover the shortfall caused by CPS's “poor fiscal management.”
The Chicago Teachers Union's high demands during contract negotiations have further strained CPS's budget, contributing to the deficits.
More: Earlier this month, the National Education Association, America's largest teachers union, faced an internal revolt at its annual convention following an overtime pay dispute.
Zoom out: The U.S. spends more on education than virtually every other country, but lags behind its peers on performance.
In 2018, the average U.S. student ranked a full four years behind their Chinese counterpart on mathematics, according to PISA test scores, the gold standard assessment for comparing educational achievement across countries.
The U.S. ranked 26th in math in the 2022 PISA, the most recent assessment.
Bubba’s Two Cents
Teachers unions are constantly in the news for two things these days —
1) Wading into politics (whether it’s mobilizing members for a particular candidate or taking a stand on Israel or other culture war issues).
2) Asking for more funding.
Considering the recent track record of the U.S. educational system and how much money we spend on it, unions might want to think about how this makes them look.
Americans are pretty unhappy with the high cost of groceries, and a new analysis by New York Federal Reserve economists digs into what it is that’s driving those prices up. (Liberty Street Economics)
Chart: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The analysis: Grocery inflation can mostly be traced back to a spike in commodity prices between 2021-2022 and wages for grocery workers rising faster than in other sectors.
Since 2019, wages for grocery workers increased by about 15% more than for the average worker.
Grocery stores saw a small increase in profit margins (from 2.9% to 4.4% from 2019 to 2023), but this was minor compared to the 25% bump in grocery prices.
Related: There’s a new breed of labor-friendly Republican — like Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, the GOP’s new vice presidential nominee — who supports raising the minimum wage and prioritizes workers over bosses.
Vance in an interview with The New York Times last month:
You raise the minimum wage to $20 an hour, and you will sometimes hear libertarians say this is a bad thing. "Well, isn't McDonald's just going to replace some of the workers with kiosks?" That's a good thing, because then the workers who are still there are going to make higher wages; the kiosks will perform a useful function; and that's the kind of rising tide that actually lifts all boats.
Vance during his acceptance speech last week:
We’re done, ladies and gentlemen, catering to Wall Street — we’ll commit to the working man. We’re done importing foreign labor, we’re going to fight for American citizens and their good jobs and their good wages.
Bubba’s Two Cents
Some studies have found Donald Trump’s Section 301 tariffs’ costs were mostly borne by consumers and tariffs did nothing to increase jobs in protected sectors. Economics have predicted the more aggressive tariffs Trump’s floated for a second term in office will raise prices for consumers. Republicans are becoming more open to policies that go against their long-established free market principles, but will they like the results?
4. The Conspiracy Theory Balance
Right-wing conspiracies get seemingly endless amounts of coverage in the media, but new data shows Dems can get their crazy on, too. (Washington Free Beacon)
An eye-popping statistic: 34% of Democrats say it’s “credible” that Donald Trump staged his assassination attempt, per a Morning Consult poll released last week.
How does that compare to QAnon? A 2021 PRRI poll found just 23% of Republicans believed in the QAnon conspiracy theory.
Dmitri Mehlhorn, top political adviser to Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman, in a letter to reporters:
I skimmed a few headlines just now. NOT ONE NEWSPAPER OR OPINION LEADER IN AMERICA IS WILLING TO OPENLY CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT TRUMP AND PUTIN STAGED THIS ON PURPOSE. Ask the question, people. If it proves wrong, we should respond appropriately to a non-staged act of political violence, as outlined above. But your credibility and our entire system of truth and justice depends on being certain of the answer.
Related: According to Skeptic Magazine’s nonpartisan Skeptic Research Center, the share of Democrats who believe the 2016 election of Trump was rigged is higher than the percentage of Republicans who think Biden’s 2020 win was fraudulent.
Chart: Skeptic Research Center
Bubba’s Two Cents
The point of this isn’t to claim that Democrats are the real conspiracists. Instead, this should give us all some perspective on the fact that there are extremists and weirdos in both parties. It should also stir some reflection into the media’s role in shaping perceptions about these issues.
5. DEI Decline
Corporate diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives have had a rough couple of years. (Axios)
The latest: The Society for Human Resource Management, the country’s largest HR professional group, announced last week it was getting rid of the “equity” portion of its diversity, equity and inclusion strategy.
A SHRM statement posted to LinkedIn:
Effective immediately, SHRM will be adopting the acronym "I&D" instead of "IE&D." This strategic decision underscores our commitment to leading with Inclusion as the catalyst for holistic change in workplaces and society. … By emphasizing Inclusion-first, we aim to address the current shortcomings of DE&I programs, which have led to societal backlash and increasing polarization.
The trend: While DEI surged in the wake of 2020’s society-wide racial reckoning, companies have since rebranded and pulled back on messaging in the face of backlash.
A Gravity Research analysis of documents from Fortune 100 companies found a 22% drop in the use of terms like "DEI," "diversity," and "inclusion” from 2023 to 2024.
Meanwhile, mentions of positions like "chief diversity officer" fell by 49%, and references to "representation goals" decreased by 52%.
Related: Environmental, social and governance (ESG), DEI’s ideological cousin in the investment world, has also fallen out of favor.
Bubba’s Two Cents
It’s not that Americans necessarily disagree with the principles of DEI, some of which are probably well-intentioned. It’s that they rightly question the effectiveness of policies that overemphasize identity and seem to go out of their way to put labels on people. The nail in the coffin: there’s little to no evidence that DEI training (which is expensive) actually works. And some research shows it actually makes companies less diverse.
Did you like an item in today’s edition?
Forward it to a friend
Screenshot an item and text it to them
Direct your friend to https://www.bubba.news/