Charts of the Day

Retaliatory tariffs in response to President Trump’s increased tariffs are already much broader in scale compared to the trade war set off in his first term, according to the Tax Foundation’s Erica York.

What’s changed? In the first trade war (2018-2020), U.S. trading partners retaliated with tariffs targeting $2.7 billion in U.S. exports from Canada and $2.9 billion from the EU. Now, in 2025, those numbers have surged to $20.7 billion and $28 billion, respectively—a more than tenfold increase in retaliation.

The upshot: Trump’s tariff strategy is a gamble—and this time, the stakes are much higher. The potential upside? If tariffs successfully push companies to reshore production, they could create new domestic manufacturing jobs and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. But the risks are just as big. The first trade war cost U.S. agriculture $27 billion in lost exports, forced the government to bail out farmers with $28 billion in subsidies, and hit U.S. brands like Harley-Davidson and Jack Daniel’s with retaliatory tariffs. Now, with trade partners targeting $190 billion in U.S. exports, the question isn’t just whether this approach can work—it’s whether the economic pain along the way will be worth it.

The clean energy transition isn’t happening as fast as some might expect, with American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Roger Pielke pointing to JP Morgan’s latest annual energy report as evidence of its steady, rather than explosive, growth.

What’s the reality? The world has spent $9 trillion on wind, solar, EVs, energy storage, and power grid upgrades over the past decade, yet the transition remains a slow, linear climb. Since 2012, the share of global energy from carbon-free sources has inched up from 14% to just over 18%, increasing by only 0.3%–0.6% per year. If that pace continues, the world wouldn’t reach 100% clean energy until sometime after 2200.

There’s no doubt clean energy has made strides—solar and wind are expanding, EV adoption is growing, and major investments keep rolling in. But when you zoom out, the hype around an imminent green energy takeover looks a bit premature. Even after trillions in spending, fossil fuels still supply 80-85% of the energy needed for industrial production—steel, cement, fertilizer, chemicals, plastics, glass—everything modern prosperity depends on. Meanwhile, solar, a key pillar of the transition, is expected to provide just 4.5% of global energy by 2027.

According to a recent NBER study, motor vehicle and manufacturing productivity has soared since the 1930s, while construction output has noticeably stagnated.

What’s driving this? Land-use restrictions and environmental regulations surged in the 1970s—right when construction productivity stalled. Meanwhile, industries like auto manufacturing kept scaling, going from 4.8 cars per worker in 1939 to 25 in 2020. The NBER study suggests restrictive zoning keeps homebuilders small and inefficient, limiting tech investment and slowing productivity. If housing scaled like manufacturing, output could be 60% higher.

The auto and manufacturing industries have made massive productivity gains, suggesting that America still knows how to build efficiently. So why hasn’t construction followed the same trajectory? Maybe it’s just the nature of the industry—or maybe layers of regulations and red tape have made it harder to build at scale. If the rules that govern homebuilding had applied to car manufacturing, would we still be assembling vehicles like we did in the 1930s?

Per a new Pew Research Center survey, 47% of Americans say people are ruder in public now than before COVID-19, including 20% who say their fellow citizens are “a lot” ruder.

• Another 44% say behavior in public is about the same, while just 9% think people are more polite.

• 34% of Americans report frequently seeing rude behavior in public, while 46% say they see it sometimes.

Connecting the dots: The Pew survey taps into something deeper than just rising rudeness—it reflects a broader sense that America just isn’t working as well as it used to. Whether it’s crime, immigration, collapsing social trust, or just the general feeling that public life is fraying, many Americans believe the country has become more chaotic, less orderly, and harder to live in.

Intellectuals like Charles Fain Lehman argue that while traditional crime stats don’t always capture the issue, disorder—public drug use, homelessness, shoplifting, fare evasion—has become more visible and more tolerated. But the frustration goes beyond policy failures. The vibe in America is off, and the sense that things are slipping out of control has fueled political movements that promise to restore order—most obviously, Donald Trump’s return to power.

According to a new Center for Strategic & International Studies report (h/t Bruce Mehlman), “a single Chinese state-owned shipbuilder produced more commercial vessels by tonnage in 2024 than the entire U.S. industry has since World War II.”

For context: China now builds over half of the world’s ships, while the U.S. accounts for just 0.1% of global shipbuilding.

Zoom out: China’s dominance in commercial shipbuilding isn’t just about economics—it’s part of how Beijing is rapidly expanding its navy. The PRC is on track for a 425-ship fleet by 2030, while the U.S. Navy is projected to stay at around 300 ships.

Washington is scrambling to respond. The bipartisan SHIPS Act is aimed at reviving U.S. shipbuilding, but reversing decades of decline won’t be easy—especially as foreign companies keep pouring money into China’s state-backed shipyards.