A Major Electoral Map Shift

Per a new analysis from AEI’s Nate Moore, the electoral map is on the brink of a major shake-up with far-reaching political implications.

The numbers: If current population trends hold, Republican-leaning states are projected to gain 10 electoral votes, while Democratic-leaning states are set to lose 9 after the 2030 census.

• California (-3), New York (-2), and Illinois (-1) are on track to lose House seats due to population decline.

  Texas (+4) and Florida (+4) lead the gains, with Idaho (+1) and Utah (+1) also picking up seats.

Zoom out: The exodus from blue states isn’t just a right-wing talking point—even liberal pundits acknowledge that steep living costs and flawed housing policies are major reasons Democratic strongholds are losing residents.

A new CNN/SRRS poll finds the Democratic Party’s favorability has dropped to a record low.

The numbers: The share of Americans who have a “favorable” view of Democrats fell to 29%, down from 44% in 2017.

Plus: New Echelon Insights polling suggests Democrats aren’t exactly fired up about the fresh blood available to them—Kamala Harris leads a hypothetical 2028 primary field, far outpacing names like Gavin Newsom and AOC.

Related: Support for a more moderate Democratic Party has increased by 11 percentage points since 2021, according to a Gallup poll released last month.

Zoom in: In an effort to push back against the idea that Dems are out of touch with regular voters, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has launched a podcast featuring more moderate rhetoric and conversations with conservatives.

The early returns: According to a new survey of 1,000 California voters, Newsom's favorability with liberals dropped from 46% to 30% after the podcast launch.

• The governor’s net favorability fell 10 points, from +4 to -6 overall.

• Just 20% of voters said the podcast made them want to listen to more.

• Republicans remained skeptical, with many calling him “fake” and “pandering” despite agreeing with some of his stances.

The Newsom experiment shows the trap politicians face when they try to reach across the aisle. In today’s climate, which is swarming with partisanship and conflict, straying from the party line comes at a real cost. The question is: are there politicians willing to play the long game and endure short-term blowback from their own side in order to be more appealing in a general election? If you think about it, that’s kind of what Donald Trump did, and he’s dominated GOP politics for almost a decade now.

Protests in China surged by 21% in late 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to the China Dissent Monitor.

Zoom in: 7,000 protests have been recorded by the CDM since 2022.

• 75% of these protests were driven by economic issues, including unpaid wages, housing disputes, and land confiscation by local governments.

Christian Science Monitor Beijing bureau chief Ann Tyson: “China’s sluggish economy is denying its citizens the job opportunities they had been led to expect. Increasingly they are protesting, or even using violence, to express their grievances.”

The latest CDC data shows a spike in U.S. measles cases, with 300 reports in 2025 so far.

• Current outbreaks are concentrated in Texas, New Mexico, and New Jersey, with isolated cases in 12 other states including California, New York, and Florida.

The numbers: While public health officials say 94-95% of the population needs to be vaccinated to prevent outbreaks, declining vaccination rates amid a rising vaccine skepticism movement threatens these benchmarks.

• 93% of U.S. kindergartners were vaccinated last year, falling below the safe threshold.

• Some areas, like West Texas, have rates as low as 80%.

One of the main goals of President Trump’s tariffs on materials like steel and aluminum is to get the U.S. to produce more of them, but at least some evidence suggests that didn’t happen during his first round of tariffs.

The numbers: U.S. aluminum production capacity dropped 32% and steel production by 3.6% since the introduction of Trump’s 2018 tariffs.