The State of Medicaid
Will Trump be able to keep his promise to "love and cherish" Medicaid?
Bubba
03 Mar
The State of Medicaid
President Trump has vowed not to make cuts to Medicaid, but Congressional Republicans’ latest move may open up the path to doing exactly that. (NYT)
The latest: The latest House Republican budget resolution, narrowly passed Wednesday by a 217-215 vote, proposes significant spending cuts totaling $2 trillion.
While the resolution does not explicitly detail reductions to Medicaid, it instructs the House Energy and Commerce Committee to identify at least $880 billion in cost savings over the next decade, with Medicaid expected to be a primary target for these cuts.
The options: Possible measures to trim Medicaid spending include—
Work requirements for certain adults (~$100 billion savings).
Stricter eligibility checks, requiring more paperwork (~$160 billion).
Limiting state hospital taxes, which currently help states increase federal Medicaid funding (~$175 billion).
Reducing funding for Medicaid expansion, potentially forcing states to drop coverage (~$560 billion).
The message: Speaker Mike Johnson stressed that the House GOP bill does not explicitly mention Medicaid but hinted in a CNN interview with Kaitlan Collins that changes to the program could still be on the table.
Johnson:
Medicaid is for single mothers with small children who are just trying to make it.
It's not for 29-year-old males sitting on their couch playing video games.
We're going to find those guys, and we will SEND them back to work!
The numbers: As the prominent pro-Trump operator Steve Bannon pointed out earlier this month, “a lot of MAGA is on Medicaid.”
Indeed, according to a recent KFF analysis, more than 20 million Republicans are on Medicaid (there are roughly 36 million registered Republicans in America).
Overall, approximately 80 million people get health care from Medicaid.
The vibes: A new Hart Research survey found that 82% of all voters consider cutting Medicaid unacceptable.
According to the same survey, 71% of voters who supported Trump also oppose Medicaid cuts.
Per a January KFF poll, over three-quarters (77%) of Americans, including 61% of Republicans, have a favorable view of Medicaid.
Trump last week:
We're going to love and cherish Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid. … We're not going to do anything with that other than if we can find some abuse or waste, we'll do something, but the people won't be affected. … It'll only be more effective and better.
Bubba’s Two Cents
The new Trump administration has been feeling itself. With little of a GOP “establishment” left to resist him, the president has made bold—arguably unprecedented—moves that have royally pissed off his opponents and thrilled his supporters. His first term, in hindsight, looks almost restrained.
To some, this is exactly what America needs: a wrecking ball smashing through Washington’s stale, bipartisan status quo. This is what voters wanted, what they demanded.
But as the Medicaid shake-up signals, there’s danger in unchecked power. So far, Trump has skated by without serious grassroots blowback, but that could change. Signs of public discontent—falling approval ratings, economic jitters—suggest the tide might not stay in his favor forever.
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