Tuesday Edition

Liberals in blue cities typically push for both stricter gun laws and criminal justice reform, but what happens when these goals conflict? (DC Crime Facts)

Some startling stats from the Washington D.C. Sentencing Commission’s latest Annual Report: 79% of adults arrested with illegal guns in D.C. avoid felony convictions.

And that’s not all:

• 2,000+ gun cases in the last two years were either not prosecuted, dropped or reduced to lesser charges.

• 92% of felony cases in 2023 were resolved through plea agreements.

• The U.S. Attorney’s Office declined to prosecute one-third of felony gun possession arrests.

While D.C.’s Metro Police Department is arresting more people for gun possession and solving more crimes, the U.S. Attorney’s Office is getting more lenient on gun possession offenses:

Solidly progressive Seattle, like D.C., has backed criminal justice reform initiatives (like restorative justice and “defund the police”) that emphasize a less punitive approach to enforcing the law.

In 2022, Seattle faced a bit of an identity crisis after realizing that solving its rising gun crime crisis would require cops arresting people and prosecutors locking them up.

Seattle Times columnist Danny Westneat: “Nobody talks tougher on guns than the left. We want to regulate them, seize them, control them, even ban them. The uncomfortable part of this stance is: Who is going to carry all this out, though, if not the police? Police who are stopping, searching, interfering — all the things various city actors have understandably said they are most skeptical police can do safely and without racial bias.”

Bubba’s Two Cents

As Republican Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana wrote in an op-ed earlier this year, “Ending gun violence starts with enforcing gun laws.”

Donald Trump’s yet to decide on a running mate, but we now have some insight on what the contenders bring to the table electorally. (Business Insider)

Here’s the effect each Republican on Trump’s shortlist has on voters, according to a new Harvard-Harris poll:

• Sen. Tim Scott: makes voters 25% more likely to vote for Trump vs. 19% less likely (+6)

• Vivek Ramaswamy: 23% vs. 23% (+0)

• Sen. Marco Rubio: 22% vs. 22% (+0)

• Tulsi Gabbard: 19% vs. 21% (-1)

• South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem: 16% vs. 23% (-7)

• North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum: 15% vs. 21% (-6)

• Rep. Elise Stefanik: 13% vs. 24% (-11)

Key point: For each vice presidential hopeful, 54% to 64% of voters said Trump's choice for running mate wouldn't influence their decision at all.

Bubba’s Two Cents

Assuming this poll is correct and Trump’s VP pick won’t really have that much of an effect on who voters cast their presidential ballots for, does it really matter? Yes, according to Neal Freeman, former editor of National Review.

Freeman: “At the beginning of every cycle, the vice-presidential choice becomes, overnight, the leading presidential candidate for the next cycle. … But this year — with the GOP presidential nominee limited, constitutionally, to one term and, actuarially, to a brief working life — it is highly likely that the vice-presidential pick will become the presidential pick sometime in the next four years.”

Both Democrats and Republicans see abortion as a major vulnerability for the GOP in the 2024 election, but new data suggests these concerns might be overblown. (New York Post)

A new CBS News/YouGov poll: Despite strict abortion laws in Florida and Arizona, Donald Trump is leading President Biden in both states (by 9 and 5 points, respectively).

• Trump took Florida in 2020 by 3.3 points and Biden squeaked a win out in Arizona by a 0.4% margin.

• Florida’s six-week abortion ban took effect earlier this month.

• Last month, Arizona lawmakers repealed a controversial 1864 law that banned most abortions.

More bad news for Democrats hoping abortion could deliver wins for Biden in Arizona and Florida: Abortion ranks well below other voter concerns in each state.

Share of Arizona voters who say the following issues are important:

• Economy: 82%

• Inflation: 78%

• State of democracy: 70%

• U.S.-Mexico border: 61%

• Crime: 59%

• Abortion: 51%

Share of Florida voters who say the following issues are important:

• Economy: 89%

• Inflation: 84%

• State of democracy: 74%

• Crime: 69%

• U.S.-Mexico border: 64%

• Abortion: 53%

The national trend: A Pew Research Center poll released last week found the share of Americans (63%) who think abortion should be legal in all or most cases has risen 4 percentage points since 2021, the year before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

• Post-Roe, abortion rights advocates have racked up win after win in a series of ballot measures across numerous states.

A recent EPA report has some encouraging news on the job the U.S. has done to reduce emissions. (Committee to Unleash Prosperity)

According to the EPA, “emissions of the common air pollutants and their precursors have been reduced substantially since 1980.”

From 1980 to 2022, overall CO2 emissions have gone up by 7%.

But, break that down per person and per GDP unit and you get a clearer sense of the progress that’s been made.

• Per person: Down 50%

• Per unit of GDP: Down nearly 80%

The U.S. plays a big role in global emissions, but China plays an even bigger one.

• A recent report from the think tank Ember found China was responsible for 55% of global coal generation.

• According to the Global Carbon Atlas, China accounts for roughly one-third of the world’s carbon emissions.

Bubba’s Two Cents

Here’s how the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, an advocacy group founded by Steve Forbes, Arthur Laffer, Larry Kudlow and Stephen Moore, interpreted the EPA’s findings:

“[The] more America produces relative to the rest of the world, and the less China produces, the better for the ecology of the planet.”