Friday Edition

With the 2024 elections only months away, the two major U.S. parties each battle their own set of crises with the potential to turn off voters.

Democrats:

• Campus protests: Congressional Dems are reportedly panicking over pro-Palestine demonstrations that are backed by a small, but influential part of their coalition. The problem is the rowdy, sometimes violent protests are an optics nightmare, and the vast majority of Americans are taking Israel’s side in the Gaza War.

• Immigration: For three straight months, voters have said immigration is the biggest problem facing the country, and President Biden is catching a large share of the blame.

• The economy: While things had been looking up, Americans’ confidence in the economy just fell for the first time since October. With inflation starting to tick back up again, this could be very bad news for Biden.

Republicans:

• Donald Trump’s legal problems: While some polls show there’s no bump for Biden even if Trump gets convicted of a crime, other polls show a conviction could hurt Trump with independents. Either way, Trump courtroom drama is a distraction that keeps the microscope off of Biden. It’s also a drain on campaign funds.

• Abortion: GOP strategists are very worried the overturning of Roe v. Wade could spur higher Dem turnout in 2024, as exit polls from recent elections show a growing number of voters list abortion as a key issue.

• Dysfunction: Speaker Mike Johnson is being threatened with a motion to vacate just months after his predecessor was ousted. Infighting is rampant in the GOP, which might not inspire much confidence in voters.

Bubba’s Two Cents: Americans have become somewhat numb to the circus that is modern politics as chaos and dysfunction become par for the course. News cycles move fast, and the national conversation can turn on a dime. Some of the issues we mentioned above will hang around, but ’24 may come down to what the conversation is in late October — and that could look very different than it does today.

Evidence keeps mounting of a major shift in America's economic and cultural hubs. (Economic Innovation Group)

Last year marked the first time ever that high-wage metro areas created less than 50% of U.S. jobs, according to a new analysis from the bipartisan Economic Innovation Group. In the 10 years before the pandemic, Los Angeles, San Jose, San Francisco, Portland, Seattle, Washington, D.C., Boston and New York City alone were responsible for 25% of all new jobs.

The three main reasons it’s happening:

1. People are fleeing expensive coastal cities for cheaper areas, taking jobs with them.

2. Tech sector growth has stalled, limiting job opportunities.

3. Economic growth in Sun Belt regions is drawing businesses and workers, sparking new job creation.

Economic Innovation Group research lead August Benzow: “The long-term implications of this geographic reshuffling remain to be fully understood. However, one thing is clear–the landscape of opportunity across America has been fundamentally altered in the post-pandemic environment. This transformation provokes a re-evaluation of our assumptions about the locations and drivers of job growth in what appears to be a ‘new normal’ economy.”

Related: We're seeing a geographic realignment not only in business but also in other areas.

• Higher education: Applications to public Southern colleges are up 62%.

• Population: The South has been the fastest-growing region in the country for two years running.

Bubba’s Two Cents: The pandemic seems to have prompted a national reevaluation of our priorities and values. That flashy, fast-paced big city lifestyle with fancy job to match has gotten less appealing to a lot of people.

What’s the deal with independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? (Politico)

The latest: Donald Trump’s camp is reportedly worried about how often RFK is showing up on right-leaning news shows.

• Kennedy’s made 69 media appearances since January, with nearly half occurring on conservative or anti-establishment programs.

• RFK averages about 10% support nationally, a high enough share of the vote to potentially swing the 2024 election to Trump or President Biden.

Polling results are unclear on whether RFK will take more votes from Trump or Biden.

• A Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds Kennedy pulls equally from both Trump and Biden, who are tied at 42% each in a full field of candidates, with Kennedy securing 5% of the vote.

• Other polls show him taking more votes from Biden, while still others say it’s Trump who’ll be hardest hit.

Interestingly, it seems like people who don’t like Trump or Biden aren’t necessarily huge RFK fans either, according to a recent Monmouth poll.

• Among double haters (voters who dislike Biden AND Trump), his support stands at nearly 40% (15% definite and 23% probable).

• But once these double haters get acquainted with Kennedy’s views, support drops to 26%.

Bubba’s Two Cents: Left and right is becoming less important than pro- versus anti-institution. RFK, like Trump, taps into the growing frustration with the people who’ve been in charge of running the country for the past decades. He may not be the answer, but he’s going to be a factor, which goes to show how powerful this sentiment has become in politics.

Bubba’s Two Cents: The rise of left-right populism has made it more common for politicians to pursue their pet agendas and say they’re doing it in the name of the American people. You’ve got Ivy League campus agitators acting like they’re standing up for the oppressed, and you’ve got America First politicians railing about how they’re standing up for the will of the people. The reality is most Americans might take a side on some of this stuff, but they’re not quite as riled up about it.