Monday Edition: The New Obama?

Plus: Shoplifting is out of control.

Author

Bubba
05 Aug

Ukraine is finally deploying F-16s, but how much of an impact will the U.S.-made jets have in the country’s war with Russia? International Institute for Strategic Studies air power expert Doug Barrie told The Economist that, for now, the 10 F-16s are mostly a morale boost, but eventually could make a difference.

1. Kamala and Obama

The comparisons between Barack Obama and Kamala Harris have begun. (The Liberal Patriot)

The narrative: In a new essay for The New York Times, columnist Michelle Goldberg declared that while Harris failed to generate “Obama-level enthusiasm when she ran for president in 2019” the present-day “Kamalanomenon” is real.

Goldberg describing her conversation with Tracy Nailor, a Harris supporter:

At the rally, I asked Nailor how she compared the energy around Harris to that of Obama’s campaign in 2008. “It’s similar in terms of the happiness and the hope that we have, but it’s different because it’s a woman,” she said. “And so I can look at you, you can look at me, and we’re two women, and we get it. I’m telling you something. I go on my walks in the morning, I see women of color, and we just look at each other. And we just smile like, yeah, sis, we got this. We got this.”

The counter-narrative: There are very real differences between Obama and Harris’ coalitions, as political scientist Ruy Texeira laid out in a recent analysis for The Liberal Patriot.

  • Harris is carrying nonwhite voters overall by just 34 points, compared to Obama winning them by a 64-point margin.

  • Where Obama won college-educated voters by 6 points, Harris is carrying them by 20.

  • While Obama only lost white working-class voters by 20 points, Harris is losing them by 38, nearly double.

  • Obama won nonwhite working class voters by 67 points; Harris by only 29.

  • Obama won working-class Americans overall by four points, while Harris is losing them by 15.

Chart: Bruce Mehlman

Texeira:

Of course, none of this means Harris can’t win. But no one should kid themselves that, even if successful, Harris’ coalition will represent the second coming of the Obama coalition. Instead it is likely to be a more class-polarized version of the post-Obama Democratic coalition with even more reliance on the college-educated vote, particularly the white college-educated vote.

Bubba’s Two Cents

The Democratic Party under Obama was a fusion of elite and blue-collar. Harris’ coalition, on the other hand, is much closer to being an alliance of college-educated liberals and little else. However you may feel about that reality, it certainly plays into criticisms of Democrats as out-of-touch elites and makes the hype surrounding Harris feel a little less authentic and special.

2. Crime Is Complicated

Is crime getting worse in America? Mostly no. (The Center Square)

The latest: A recent report from the Council on Criminal Justice found homicide and most violent crimes have fallen to prepandemic levels, but shoplifting spiked 24% in the first half of 2024.

  • Homicides in 29 cities decreased by 13% compared to the first half of 2023, meaning there were 319 fewer homicides.

  • Motor vehicle thefts fell 18% compared to the first half of 2023.

  • Residential burglaries decreased by 14%, nonresidential burglaries by 10%, larcenies by 6% and drug offenses by 2%.

On the other hand: Compared to the first half of 2019, gun assaults increased by 1% and carjackings surged by 68%.

CCJ President Adam Gelb:

It’s wonderful to see the overall trends bend back in the right direction, but the progress is very uneven and being driven by large drops in a handful of high-homicide cities. Policymakers and community leaders can accelerate the momentum by doubling down on crime-prevention strategies that are backed by evidence and are delivering measurable results.

The vibes: In recent years, the share of Americans who say crime is a serious problem has steadily increased.

Bubba’s Two Cents

What’s basically happened over the past few years is that crime spiked a lot during the pandemic and has since mostly returned to prepandemic levels.

To me, that story doesn’t scream anything like “we’ve solved crime” or Americans shouldn’t be concerned about it. And yet the media’s constantly finger-wagging at people who are worried about crime, or accusing Republicans of “alarmism.” Sure, some of the conservative movement’s arguments about crime are just wrong (No, the FBI isn’t misreporting homicide data to make Joe Biden look good).

But there’s a very reasonable case to be made that, crime statistics aside, we could be tougher on crime.

3. The Teaching Profession’s In a Funk

In rich countries around the world, it’s getting harder to hold onto good teachers, and America is no different. (The Economist)

The Economist:

Nothing makes more difference to a child’s schooling than the quality of their teachers. One American study concludes that children taught by the top 25% of staff make twice as much progress as those taught by the least-effective quarter. All the more reason to worry that, in a large swathe of rich countries, the profession looks bedraggled. A recent study in Europe concluded that 38 out of 43 education systems report staffing problems of one sort or another.

Zoom in: In the U.S., only 37% of parents saw teaching as a good career for their children in 2022, down from 74% in 2009.

  • The number of people earning teaching licenses in the US declined by one-third from 2006 to 2020.

  • American teachers earn 26% less than similarly educated professionals; this "pay penalty" has risen from 6% in 1996.

  • 86% of public school districts struggled to hire teachers for the 2023-24 school year, per a National Center for Education Statistics survey.

A National Bureau of Economic Research study from April: Perceptions of the prestige of the teaching profession have dropped 20-47% in the last decade, hitting a 50-year low.

  • Interest in teaching among high school seniors and college freshmen has declined 48% since the 1990s and 40% since 2010, reaching a 50-year low.

  • Teachers' job satisfaction reached a 50-year low in 2022, declining 26% in the past decade.

NBER researchers:

Although recent attention has focused on how the pandemic has made teachers’ work substantially more challenging, most of these declines occurred steadily throughout the last decade suggesting they are a function of larger, structural issues.

Bubba’s Two Cents

The U.S. spends more per capita than almost any other country when it comes to education and the outcomes are not stellar. In the past few decades, the number of non-teacher administrative staff in American schools has exploded, while teacher salaries have remained relatively stagnant. I’m definitely not saying money would solve all of the problems we’re seeing with teacher retention and job satisfaction, but I do think it would help if more of that funding went to the people actually working in classrooms with students.

4. Who Is Most Impacted by Gun Violence?

Is it true, as Vice President Kamala Harris said earlier this year, that gun violence is the leading cause of death for American children? (Ammo.com)

A new Ammo.com analysis based on CDC data:

Not all of America’s children are at risk of firearm-related death, and blanket “guns are the number one killer of kids” statements deter meaningful conversations away from those who are most at risk of gun violence.

The risk of firearm-related death doesn’t begin until individuals reach age fourteen and peaks between age 19 and 24. The rates decline after individuals reach 34 years of age.

So who is most likely to be impacted? There are three main factors that determine at-risk demographics.

Age: Individuals aged 20-24 have the highest rate of firearm deaths at 24.3 per 100k.

Chart: Ammo.com

Race: Young black Americans are disproportionately affected, making up 20% of firearm deaths while being only 4% of the population.

Chart: Ammo.com

Location: Urban areas have the highest rate of firearm-related deaths at 7.5 per 100k people.

Chart: Ammo.com

Correction: We originally stated, "Black Americans are disproportionately affected, making up 20% of firearm deaths while being only 4% of the population."

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