Friday Edition: The Media Tides Are Clear
Plus: Here's why Trump/Kamala will win.
Bubba
01 Nov
1. 3 Quotes That Show Which Way Media Tide Is Going
Billionaire Bill Ackman during a recent appearance on the “Triggernometry” podcast:
I don't want to sit here and just be an advertisement for 𝕏, but if someone writes a profile on me in some media form, within an hour of that article coming out, I can very specifically fact-check, rebut, address the issue. …
The most powerful moment for me was that I truly believed that Trump had said the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists were among the “very fine people” who were protesting [at the 2017 Unite the Right Rally in Charlottesville, Virginia]. It takes about two minutes to actually watch what he said and realize that he said precisely the opposite. …
That's the moment when you realize, oh my god, I really have been misled by the media. You look at the “60 Minutes” excerpting that was done of Kamala, and you realize how much you can be manipulated, particularly by taped and excerpted media. If I'm trying to get to the truth, I want to hear the voice of the candidate, untaped, unscripted, without the teleprompter.
Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos in a new op-ed explaining the Post’s decision not to endorse a presidential candidate:
Lack of credibility isn’t unique to The Post. Our brethren newspapers have the same issue. And it’s a problem not only for media, but also for the nation. Many people are turning to off-the-cuff podcasts, inaccurate social media posts and other unverified news sources, which can quickly spread misinformation and deepen divisions. The Washington Post and the New York Times win prizes, but increasingly we talk only to a certain elite. More and more, we talk to ourselves.
An anonymous TV exec quoted in New York Magazine this week:
If half the country has decided that Trump is qualified to be president, that means they’re not reading any of this media, and we’ve lost this audience completely. A Trump victory means mainstream media is dead in its current form. And the question is what does it look like after.
Related: Per new Edison Research data, the biggest podcasts on Spotify are almost exclusively independent operations, with The New York Times’ “The Daily” the sole mainstream media representative in the top 10.
Big picture: Over the past few decades, trust in mainstream media has cratered.
Bubba’s Two Cents
The new model — media driven by personalities on podcasts and social — is replacing the old model — credible legacy news brands — in large part because the public doesn’t trust the press to be fair and unbiased anymore. Will mainstream news companies get the message and change how they operate to regain the public’s confidence? I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Case in point: After deciding not to endorse a presidential candidate this year, the Post faced backlash from within, with several staff members resigning in protest. Simultaneously, the paper has doubled down on its anti-Trump stance, investing in ads to promote a stream of articles highly critical of the former president.
2. Why Trump/Kamala Will Win
The 2024 presidential contest is a dead heat, but whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris emerges as the winner, here are the signs that suggested this outcome was coming. (CNN)
Trump:
Vibes: Only 28% of Americans think the country’s on the right track. Historically, when the incumbent party loses, this number averages around 25%.
Biden baggage: President Biden has a net approval rating that is 15 points underwater.
GOP registration gains: Republicans have made voter registration inroads in key swing states (For instance, Republican registrations in Arizona are up 5 points compared to 2020).
Harris:
Popularity contest: Harris’ net favorability is 5 points higher than Trump’s — going back to 1956, the more popular candidate has won 16 out of 17 presidential elections. (Sidenote: In 2016, Trump became the only candidate to buck the trend.)
Recent history: Democrats have outperformed Joe Biden’s 2020 margin by an average of 2 points in recent state and federal special elections, a positive indicator for their chances in the upcoming election.
Voter propensity advantage: The vice president has made gains among voters with a high likelihood of showing up to the polls, while Trump has gained with lower propensity voters.
3. This Poll Shows Americans Agree on a Lot More Than We Think
The numbers: On 43 out of 64 sensitive issues, including abortion rights, school choice, immigration, and voter ID, 90% of demographic groups privately share the same opinion, according to the latest Social Pressure Index survey. (Populace)
58% of Americans feel they can’t share honest opinions on sensitive topics.
61% admit to self-censorship.
Context: While the Social Pressure Index suggests there’s plenty of common ground to be found between political groups, America is currently gripped by high levels of political polarization and partisan hostility.
Bubba’s Two Cents
Ever noticed how seldom we see media representations of people from different walks of life finding shared points of agreement?
Surprisingly, real-life data shows it’s actually quite common. Interesting, isn’t it?
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