Here’s What the Final Polls Tell Us
Bubba
04 Nov
What do the final polls before Tuesday tell us about the presidential race? Well, it depends on which way you squint. (Newsweek)
Case in point: The latest Iowa poll by Selzer & Co., a highly respected pollster that has gained a reputation for correctly zigging when the rest of the industry zags, found a +3 lead for Kamala Harris.
Trump won Iowa by 8 points in 2020.
On the other hand: Another respected pollster, Emerson College, has Donald Trump leading in the Buckeye State by 10 points!
Polling averages: Per all the major polling aggregators, the race is super close.
What about the swing states? It’s pretty tight in the battlegrounds, too, according to the final New York Times/Siena College poll.
Arizona: Trump +4
Georgia: Harris +1
Michigan: Trump +1
Nevada: Harris +3
North Carolina: Harris +3
Pennsylvania: Even
Wisconsin: Harris +3
Bubba’s Two Cents
This election could be close. It could be a landslide. Are pollsters underestimating Trump like they did in 2020 and 2016 (New York Times data guru Nate Cohn suggested this week there are signs it’s happening again)? Or are they underestimating Democrats like they did in 2022?