Tuesday Edition: Getting More Dependent on Government

As trust in democracy falls in the U.S. and beyond, is disinformation the root cause, or just a symptom of a bigger problem? (RealClearPolitics)

Take 1: Speaking at a World Economic Forum panel last week, former Secretary of State John Kerry suggested disinformation is a major factor in the destabilization of democracies around the world, and the First Amendment is an obstacle to fighting it.

Kerry:

Bubba’s Two Cents

Are our leaders in government failing us, or are bad actors using social media to fool us into thinking things are worse than they really are? That’s basically what this debate boils down to. Whatever the answer is, trying to control the narrative using heavy-handed measures (like social media censorship and government regulation) is pretty much guaranteed to make things worse.

An aging populace and economic decline in many communities means the share of Americans who depend on government aid (like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid) has grown astronomically. (WSJ)

A new Economic Innovation Group report: In 1970, less than 1% of U.S. counties relied on government aid for at least 25% of their income.

• By 2022, more than 53% of U.S. counties drew at least a quarter of their income from government.

• Government safety-net programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, as well as unemployment insurance and other support, are a significant part of income for 22% of the U.S. population.

Why: This is mainly a demographic challenge, not one sparked by the growth of welfare programs.

• As the report’s authors note: “[T]he nation’s poor population is growing nowhere near as quickly as its elderly population. Income maintenance programs constitute small portions of both total transfer spending and growth in transfer spending over time.”

Red/blue: Much of the growth in government assistance has taken place in Republican counties, which tend to be older, more rural and harder hit by economic stagnation.

Zoom out: In 2022, the U.S. government distributed $3.8 trillion in transfers (government aid and benefits) to Americans.

• This would equal about $11,500 per person if evenly divided across the U.S. population.

• Government transfers now make up 18% of total personal income, a sharp rise from 8% in 1970.

Bubba’s Two Cents

We’ve been beating this drum for a few weeks now: the reason Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s campaigns are proposing so many government-safety net programs are these initiatives are very popular. This new WSJ analysis, which shows how many Americans rely on these programs, just drives the reality home.

Suicides have been trending up for years, and they’re not stopping. (The Hill)

New CDC provisional data: In 2023, the U.S. recorded just over 49,300 suicide deaths, which is roughly equal to the record-high rate.

• From 2002 to 2022, the suicide rate for males was 3-4 times higher than that of females, with firearm-related suicides being the most common method for both genders.

• Suicide rates for men aged 75 and older were significantly higher than for any other male age group, highlighting a long-standing issue in men's mental health.

Related: A 2020 Commonwealth Fund report found the U.S. had lower life expectancy and higher suicide rates than its peer nations, despite spending more on health care.

Also related: In a new Wall Street Journal analysis, reporter Rachel Wolfe chronicles how young American men are trending in the opposite direction of their female counterparts — in school, career, social and romantic life.

Bubba’s Two Cents

I have two thoughts here —

1) By many metrics, society is better off than it’s ever been. But the troubling rise in suicide cuts against this narrative of linear progress and shows that’s there are nuances.

2) It seems like the issue of gender is becoming a growing source of friction in the discourse. We’ve already seen it somewhat with discussions about the male-female divide in politics. You can expect this to ramp up as social conditions continue to change.