Wednesday Edition: Why Latinos Are Voting Trump

Plus: The biggest voting bloc in the country isn't doing so hot.

1. One Reason Why More Latinos Are Voting for Trump

Using overly academic, left-wing coded words like “Latinx” is not an effective way to win over masses of Latino voters, research suggests. (Fox News)

A new study by Harvard professor Marcel Roman: Researchers reviewed seven studies and found Democratic politicians who use or are linked to the “gender-inclusive” term “Latinx” are less likely to garner the support of Latinos.

  • Although conservative Latinos are the main force behind this trend, even LGBT-friendly Hispanics don’t show more support for politicians who embrace “Latinx” language.

Related: According to 2023 Pew Research Center survey, only 4% of U.S. Latinos use “Latinx” to describe their community, and a growing share (75%) of those familiar with the term say it shouldn’t be used to describe Hispanics.

Zoom in: There are big class and generational differences dividing Latinos who are hip to “Latinx.”

  • Overall, only 47% have heard of the term.

  • But 74% of Latino college graduates, 67% of LGBT Latinos and 60% of Latinos aged 18-29 are familiar with Latinx.

Roman:

The problem for Democrats is that segments of the Latino community that are queerphobic and would otherwise support them are less likely to do so if queerness is made salient through inclusive language.

Ultimately, the solution to the problem we’ve diagnosed requires thinking beyond electoral politics, e.g. political education meant to root out queerphobia in Latino communities…

Former Biden White House communications director Kate Bedingfield on the Biden campaign’s 2020 Latinx messaging:

What we would hear from voters on the ground is it didn‘t necessarily resonate with them. … It felt a lot more like language that people who were professional, political class was using.

Bubba’s Two Cents

Race is becoming less of a dividing line in politics, while factors like gender and, especially, education become more important. Democrats have morphed into the party of the college-educated, but it’s come at a price: it seems like they’ve forgotten how to talk to working class voters. The party’s recent struggles with outreach to Latinos, who are about half as likely as whites to have graduated college, is just one example.

2. 2 Charts Show How the Country’s Biggest Voting Bloc Is Doing

Non-college white Americans, the largest voting bloc in the country, have been struggling over the past four years relative to other groups. (Kevin Drum)

White men without college degrees have seen their inflation-adjusted wages decline 4% since 2019, while wages for their Asian, black and Hispanic counterparts have grown.

Chart: Kevin Drum

White women without college degrees have seen their inflation-adjusted wages grow at a much smaller clip compared to Asian, black and Hispanic women.

Chart: Kevin Drum

Related: In 1980, the income of white men without college degrees was 7% higher than that of the average worker.

  • Nowadays, non-college white men’s incomes are more than 10% lower than the average worker’s.

It’s not just about the money: Economic shifts have led to a devaluing of certain kinds of blue-collar work in America in both wages and prestige and status.

New York Times reporter Emily Badger:

Observers largely misunderstood the role of the economy in Donald J. Trump’s rise, said Noam Gidron, a political scientist. Many voters who turned to Mr. Trump were middle income, not poor. But that doesn’t mean economic factors didn’t matter, he said. Rather, right-wing populism across Western democracies doesn’t necessarily appeal to those with the lowest incomes, but to those who are downwardly mobile.

The politics: 60% of Bill Clinton’s supporters were white non-college grads; only 27% of Joe Biden’s were.

Bubba’s Two Cents

The above data underscore the roots of political tension in America. If you believe the fading fortunes of blue-collar communities are just the price of progress, you’re probably aligned very differently than someone who sees it as a crisis demanding change.

3. 4 Signs the Fact-Checking Industry Mostly Moves in One Direction

  1. This week, the “nonpartisan” Marshall Project published a fact-check of more than 12,000 Donald Trump statements on immigration.

  2. During the ABC News debate between Trump and Kamala Harris in September, moderators flagged Trump’s statements five times in real-time, while Harris faced no live fact-checks.

  3. In February, PolitiFact celebrated its 1,000th fact-check of Trump, which is more fact-checks than for Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton combined.

  4. The Washington Post fact-checked more than 30,000 Trump statements over the course of his presidency (While the Post’s fact-checking team created a similar database for Biden, it discontinued the project after just 100 days).

Did you like an item in today’s edition?

  1. Forward it to a friend

  2. Screenshot an item and text it to them

  3. Direct your friend to https://www.bubba.news/