This Chart Sums Up How Far Apart Dems and Republicans Are on Crime
Bubba
31 Oct
There’s a startling partisan gap when it comes to perceptions of crime. (Gallup)
Chart: Gallup
A new Gallup survey: Only 29% of Democrats say crime has increased over the last 12 months, down from 58% last year.
Contrast that with the 90% of Republicans who still say crime is up, nearly unchanged from last year and close to the previous high.
Overall, 64% of Americans say crime in the U.S. has increased over the past year, a drop of 13 points from the previous year.
The numbers: Per the latest preliminary FBI data, violent crime dropped 10.3% in the first half of 2024, continuing a downward trend from 2023.
Context: As Republicans and Donald Trump claim violent crime is “through the roof,” a partisan debate has broken out over whether the statistics are accurately capturing the reality.
Meanwhile, the public has shifted toward wanting more tough on crime policies.
Political scientist Charles Murray on why perceptions of crime don’t jive with the data:
The crime environment isn’t defined by the index crimes. It’s defined by broken-windows offenses, which in many cities seem to have gone through the roof.
Bubba’s Two Cents
Manhattan Institute fellow Charles Fain Lehman has echoed Murray’s belief that perceptions of higher crime are being caused by increasing disorder and lawlessness in U.S. cities.
Chart: The Causal Fallacy