No, Public Schools Are Not “Back in Fashion”
Bubba
09 Sep
Democrats are taking former high school teacher Tim Walz’s political elevation as a sign public schools are having a moment, but the data suggests otherwise. (Reason)
Point: Left-leaning education journalist Jennifer Berkshire claimed in a recent piece for The Nation that after “decades of serving as a punching bag for the party’s neoliberals, public schools and the people who work in them are back in fashion.”
Berkshire pointed to surveys showing growing support for unions and pro-family programs to argue that “at a time of rising public sentiment in favor of economic redistribution and more government support for families, teachers—who consistently make the case for both—are obvious ambassadors.”
Counterpoint: In a new analysis for Reason, editor at large Matt Welch cites data showing public schools may have already peaked.
According to National Center for Education Statistics estimates, public school enrollment hit its highest point in 2019 at 50.8 million students and is projected to decline to just under 47 million by the end of this decade.
Per an analysis by Baker Institute fellow Bill King, “if you subtract the charter school students, enrollment in traditional public schools peaked in 2012 and has since declined by 5%.”
A plummeting U.S. fertility rate, as well as spikes in charter school enrollment and homeschooling, will likely only accelerate this trend.
Welch:
No amount of political backslapping and Democratic influence-buying can overcome the cruelty of math. When public school buildings become too empty, they have to shut down. When the federal spigot runs dry—as it was supposed to this month, though some drops will stick around until next year—state and local governments will be gazing out over a fiscal cliff. …
Public schools had just one job, and they screwed it up. Just wait until all taxpayers—not just the defecting families—begin to notice.
Bubba’s Two Cents
I see a big disconnect between the politics of public education (teachers unions seem to be more powerful and influential in the Democratic Party than ever) and the reality on the ground (pandemic-related school failures, rapidly declining public trust, shrinking enrollment as alternatives to public school thrive). But the bottom line is parents appear to be voting with their feet in greater and greater numbers.