On Repeat Offenders

Is it possible the U.S. isn’t tough enough on crime? (WaPo)

The latest: Earlier this month in Washington D.C., 12-year-old Paisley Brodie was hit by a man driving a car that had racked up $19,770 in unpaid tickets.

The trend: In cities across the country, a number of criminal incidents have left citizens wondering why authorities didn’t intervene sooner.

• Last October, a Tennessee father of three was shot dead by a “career criminal” with 66 prior arrests.

• In 2022, Victor Bibiano, who had previously been convicted of two murders, was arrested for a third murder following his release due to reform policies instituted by Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón.

• A group of 10 career criminals in New York City racked up 500 arrests in just two years following the enactment of a new bail reform law.

The narrative: The U.S. has an extremely high incarceration rate when compared to its peer nations, a fact that’s prompted the emergence of a robust prison and police reform movement.

Counter-narrative: Studies suggest the people that are in prison deserve to be there.

• According to the Brookings Institution, 94% of state prisoners are either violent offenders (62%) or repeat nonviolent offenders (32%).

• In 1991, 45% of state prisoners were on probation or parole at the time they committed new crimes, including 218,000 violent crimes.

• Per Bureau of Labor Justice statistics, over 75% of people entering state prisons have at least 5 prior arrests, with the average sitting at 11 prior arrests and approximately 5 prior convictions.

More: Other data shows a small percentage of the population commits a good share of the crime.

• A 2013 study found that 1% of the Swedish population was responsible for 63% of all violent crime.

• According to University of Dallas criminologist Alex Piquero, various studies show 5-8% of the U.S. population commits about half of the crime.

Bubba’s Two Cents

I’m not saying we should turn into Singapore and start caning people and locking them in jail for stealing cans of Coke. And in many ways, crime is actually down/less widespread. But the fact that we are seeing incidents that are so apparently preventable has led to 61% of voters seeing crime as a top election issue, suggesting there’s plenty of room for improvement. New York City’s fare evasion crisis highlights the current absurdity: after estimates showed fare jumpers could be costing the city’s already underfunded transit authority $800 million, the MTA turned to consultants “to create strategies to persuade customers to pay the fare.”