This Chart Shows How School Choice Fared on Election Day

Author

Bubba
21 Nov

While momentum for the school choice movement has been steadily gaining steam, it just suffered a bit of setback. (Reason Foundation)

Chart: Reason Foundation

The numbers: On Election Day, voters approved 7 out of 12 education-related statewide ballot measures, but all school choice measures failed, including:

  • Kentucky's Amendment 2 (only 35% supported it).

  • Nebraska's referendum overturning a private school scholarship program (57% supported the measure).

  • Colorado’s Amendment 80, which advocates say was hurt by unclear ballot language and poor coalition support.

Education policy expert Neal McKluskey on why school choice ballot initiatives often fail:

Referenda for school choice are always at a disadvantage because you're trying to take on entrenched, easily organized interests who defend the status quo and they can put a lot of money into defending the status quo and a lot of boots on the ground.

Counterpoint: Some school choice advocates say the 2024 election was by no means a complete rout once you start digging into local and state results.

  • In Texas, 14 anti-school choice legislators were replaced by pro-school choice Republicans in 2024 through primaries, runoffs and the general election.

  • GOP gains in South Carolina have secured a state Senate supermajority, increasing the likelihood of passing a universal educations savings program that could withstand legal challenges after the 2023 ESA law was struck down.

The broader trend: Since 2022, 146 pro-school choice bills have been introduced in 17 states.

  • Eight states enacted laws in 2023 to implement "universal school choice.”

  • From 2012 to 2022, public school enrollment for children ages 5 to 17 dropped by nearly 4 percentage points, from 90.7% to 87%.

  • Enrollment in private schools and charter schools each rose by 2 percentage points during the same period.

The vibes: Majority support for school choice programs cuts across party and demographic lines and has increased among all groups since 2020, per a RealClearOpinion Research poll from earlier this year.

  • Between 2020 and 2024, overall support has risen from 64% to 71%.

Bubba’s Two Cents

School choice advocates struggling to see their favored programs become law, despite their popularity, mirrors the disillusionment many Americans feel when widely supported ideas meet the buzzsaw that is the U.S. political process.