Thursday Edition: Vibes + Influencers=?
Plus: Is Cori Bush's defeat part of a pattern?
Bubba
08 Aug
1. Vibes and Influencers
In the “vibes over policy” era, Democrats and Republicans are increasingly turning to social media influencers to get their messages out. (CBS News)
Dems: In March, the Biden administration invited a large group of influencers to the White House to watch the State of the Union address.
Beauty influencer Awa Sanneh: "[President Biden] said to us, like, the collective presence in this room has more viewership on Gen Z than all of traditional media combined.”
A number of Dem PACs pay creators thousands of dollars (between $3,000 to $10,000 per video, according to Sanneh) to advocate for causes and politicians.
GOP: On Monday, Donald Trump was interviewed by popular 23-year-old streamer and influencer Adin Ross (This incredible video of Ross learning the meaning of “fascist” tells you pretty much all you need to know about him).
Turning Point USA, a conservative activist group which deploys legions of young influencers, has raised $200 million since 2020.
Related: Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’ surging campaign has arguably been largely vibes-driven.
Harris memes with buzzwords like "coconut tree" and "brat summer" have set social media on fire.
Meanwhile, the vice president’s campaign website is relatively bare bones on policy.
Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, has been portrayed as a “folksy,” “down-to-earth” moderate — drawing comparisons to fictional football coach Ted Lasso — despite his progressive record.
Politics is downstream of media: A recent study published in the Political Science Quarterly found media coverage tends to focus on conflict rather than policy substance.
Bubba’s Two Cents
This isn’t exactly a new trend. The “beer test” — that is, which candidate you’d rather have a beer with — has been around for a long time. But the degree to which politics has shifted to vibes over policy seems significant. The growing use of influencers — who, let’s be real, generally aren’t conducting policy discussions at a very substantive level — is more evidence of how things have changed.
Also, the press, with its focus on drama and superficial coverage, has played a big role in shaping the current landscape. Coincidentally, this is a sign of how politics is downstream of media.
2. “Squad” Backlash
Rep. Cori Bush, a fierce Israel critic and Missouri Democrat, on Tuesday became the second “Squad” member this year to lose a Democratic primary, a possible sign of a brewing backlash to radical progressivism. (USA Today)
The latest: Bush and her supporters framed her defeat as the product of a pressure campaign from the Israel lobby.
In her concession speech, Bush referenced the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which backed her opponent, Wesley Bell.
The United Democracy Project, an AIPAC-aligned PAC, poured $8 million into the race in support of Bell.
Bush:
Let’s talk about what it really is. All they did was radicalize me, so now they need to be afraid. … AIPAC, I’m coming to tear your kingdom down.
On the other hand: Bush, like fellow ousted “Squad” member Jamaal Bowman of New York, arguably did herself no favors in the leadup to her defeat.
In the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, Bush described Hamas’ actions as “resistance” to Israeli “apartheid” and called for an end to U.S. military aid to Israel.
She also faced a Justice Department investigation over her campaign spending.
Ahead of the 2022 midterms, Bush refused to stop using the slogan “defund the police,” despite fellow Democrats’ concerns that it was becoming a political liability for the party.
Big picture: In recent years, we’ve seen blue cities and states walk back progressive policies on crime and drugs in response to public backlash.
Governing editor Alan Greenblatt in November:
Across the nation, Democrats have long dominated local politics. A new generation of more progressive and often more diverse officeholders shifted their stances notably to the left during the Trump presidency, including the election of Democratic Socialists to city councils in places such as Chicago and Philadelphia. The murder of George Floyd in 2020 led to so-called racial reckoning and calls to restrict police and their budgets.
It’s possible that this march to the left is now being slowed, if not entirely stopped. In next week’s elections — including those being held in some of the most liberal cities in the country — highly progressive candidates are running into opposition from more establishment-oriented or business-friendly challengers. In many of these races, the moderates are expected to prevail.
Bubba’s Two Cents
Progressives have outsized influence on American politics (and therefore society). Their ideas have a foothold in elite institutions like media and academia, and also a lot of sway in the Democratic Party. But as a group, they’re a really small portion of the country:
And while America’s grown more liberal over the years, especially on social issues, this is still a pretty conservative country overall:
So yeah, I think progressive ideas do have a place in politics (and many of them are actually quite popular). But progressives should understand that they are not where most of the country is on a lot of issues, and if they push too hard, they can expect blowback.
3. An Insider Take on 2024 Ad Spending
Republicans are getting outspent by nearly a two-to-one margin on year-to-date presidential political ad spending. (Axios)
Chart: Axios
New projections from AdImpact: Democrats have spent $325 million on ads, almost double the Republicans' $181 million.
Total spending on the presidential election is expected to reach $10.69 billion, a 19% increase from the 2019-2020 cycle.
What does this tell us? According to a source familiar with the ins-and-outs of political spending, there are two possibilities.
1) Democrats are heavily investing in donor acquisition campaigns and fundraising video ads to build their donor lists, aiming to catch up to Republicans on online fundraising.
Trump spent roughly $400M+ on prospecting between 2018 and 2020, and it gave him a MIGHTY donor file that his campaign and the RNC is still tapping into. It looks to me like the Dems may now be trying a similar strategy.
The reason we aren't seeing this spend on Trump might be because his audience is somewhat saturated. The GOP has had the same presidential ticket for 3 cycles in a row now so things are getting kind of stale and they might not be seeing good enough performance on ads to expand their prospecting efforts.
2) The GOP is delaying major ad spending until after the Democratic convention to counter early attacks from Democrats.
Because the Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place 4 weeks after the GOP convention, Dems got a head start on attacking the GOP. Once the Dem convention happens, I think you'll see a windfall of GOP ads pickup.
4. Department Store Decline
Brick-and-mortar real estate isn’t dying, but the department store might be. (WSJ)
Chart: The Wall Street Journal
Setting the stage: Some people predicted the pandemic would accelerate the “retail apocalypse” that began roughly a decade earlier amid a massive consumer shift to e-commerce.
But: Department stores haven’t had the same luck.
In 2013, department store sales reached $60 billion.
By last year, they’d been cut in half, reaching only $29.9 billion.
According to the real estate firm Green Street, major department stores occupy less than half of all anchor spaces at enclosed shopping malls, with roughly 500 vacant spaces nationwide.
Wall Street reporter Kate King on how retailers are opting to give customers specialized experiences:
Retailers are also increasingly opening their own stores rather than relying on department-store staff to sell their goods ... Retailers want to control their customers’ entire experience, from the way their products are displayed to the shop’s lighting and scent and the design of the shopping bags customers walk out with.
Bubba’s Two Cents
What we’re seeing in retail shopping mirrors trends toward niches and specialization in other industries, such as media and the food and beverage industry.
5. An Update on Vaccine Vibes
The pandemic may be over, but it looks like vaccine hesitancy is here to stay. (Gallup)
Chart: Gallup
A new Gallup poll: Only 40% of Americans now say childhood vaccinations are extremely important, down from 58% in 2019 and 64% in 2001.
Combined "extremely" and "very important" ratings dropped from 94% in 2001 to 69% today.
Just 26% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believe vaccinations are extremely important, down from 52% in 2019.
93% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents still believe vaccinations are extremely or very important.
20% of Americans now believe vaccines are more dangerous than the diseases they prevent, up from 11% in 2019 and 6% in 2001.
Bubba’s Two Cents
One thing I’ve been thinking about is the less foreseen consequences of the pandemic and the lockdowns that came with it. From learning loss, to stunted socio-emotional development in kids, to shifts in public opinion on health officials and vaccines, the pandemic changed the country in lots of ways we probably didn’t expect.
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