Trump’s Social Security Plan Might Be Worse Than Doing Nothing
Bubba
22 Oct
Donald Trump has repeatedly pledged to protect Social Security, but his economic proposals might accelerate the system’s collapse. (WaPo)
A new Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analysis: While the Social Security Trust Fund in its current form is projected to run out of money by 2035, Trump’s proposed policies could speed up the timeline by three to four years.
In as few as six years, Trump’s pledges, including things like ending taxes on Social Security and restricting immigration, could directly and indirectly cost the program more than $1 trillion.
Under this scenario, the CFRB predicts a 23% to 33% cut in benefits.
Zoom in: The CFRB looked at how a variety of different Trump campaign vows would affect the Social Security fund.
End taxation of Social Security benefits: A loss of $850 billion to $950 billion.
End taxes on overtime and tips: A loss of $150 billion to $1.05 trillion.
Restrict immigration, impose tariffs: A loss of $300 billion to $750 billion.
Total impact: A loss of $1.3 trillion to $2.75 trillion.
Center-left journalist Matt Yglesias:
…Trump’s proposals directly make the problem worse it’s not some courageous effort to fix things, he’s accelerating insolvency. … If we do absolutely nothing, seniors are facing big sudden benefit cuts — that’s a bad idea. If we do what Trump has proposed they are facing larger, sooner benefit cuts — that’s a worse idea.
Bubba’s Two Cents
This is all based off of the idea that Trump is going to execute on the plans he’s presented, but what he’s said and what he will do could be two different things. I believe that Trump sees himself as more of a negotiator than an ideologue, so I would expect the nature of his stances to stay fluid, especially if Congress is involved.