Gettable Voters
Bubba
14 Oct
At this point in the 2024 election race, the group of voters who haven’t made up their minds is pretty small. (Axios)
How small? Per a new Pew Research Center report, just 13% of voters are open to being persuaded.
82% of voters are firmly decided between Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.
Another 5% are locked in to third-party candidates (Chase Oliver, RFK Jr., Jill Stein, Cornel West).
Of the remaining 13%, 8% have a preference (4% for Trump, 4% for Kamala) but say they could change their minds.
Related: According to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll from July 2020, a whole four months before the presidential election between Trump and Joe Biden, only 13% of voters said their votes were up for grabs.
Big picture: The share of presidential election voters who “matter” - persuadable voters in districts where the outcome isn’t already a foregone conclusion - has been shrinking for years.
What Democratic strategist Joe Trippi told the Washington Post:
It’s now getting to the point where you are probably talking about 400,000 people in three or four states. That is what it is getting down to.