Wednesday Edition

Donald Trump’s New Hampshire GOP primary win over Nikki Haley last night wasn’t a shock, but exit polling results and a decline in Haley’s favorability with Republicans are ominous signs for the former South Carolina governor’s presidential campaign. (NBC News)

Exit polling suggests many of the ballots cast for Haley were anti-Trump votes:

• Roughly 80% of Trump's voters strongly favored him, while around 40% of Haley's supporters in New Hampshire chose her mainly due to their dislike for other candidates, and only a third were strongly in favor of the former South Carolina governor, according to a CNN exit poll.

• According to an NBC News exit poll, 84% of Haley’s vote came from self-identified Democrats (New Hampshire’s semi-closed primary allows unenrolled voters to cast a ballot for either party).

• 61% of self-identified Independents voted for Haley, per NBC News.

Haley looks to be trending downward. Her favorability with Republicans has steadily declined over the past year. Polling shows supporters of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who dropped out of the presidential race Sunday, will flock to Trump.

What were the stakes of winning New Hampshire? Since 1976, the eventual GOP presidential nominee has won the state eight times.

Independents, who now make up a record share of the U.S. voting public, are poised to play a big role in the 2024 presidential election.

Where independents stand on key issues:

• The economy: Independent voters lean toward the GOP by a margin of 25 points when it comes to who they trust to handle the economy, according to an NBC News poll from September.

• Abortion: The same NBC News poll found Democrats have an 18-point advantage with independents on the issue of abortion.

• Education and healthcare: Independents favor the Democratic Party on both of these issues.

• Crime: Independents favor the GOP's approach to dealing with crime by a margin of 19 points.

• Immigration: On immigration, independent voters' preference for reduced immigration levels has roughly doubled since 2021, increasing from 19% to 36%.

Which of the two likely 2024 presidential nominees has the edge with independents?  Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 11 points among independent voters, according to a new Messenger/Harris poll.

Progressivism’s influence on the Democratic Party has skyrocketed in recent years, despite the fact that only a small share of Americans identify with the ideology.

Who are they? Progressives make up 6% of the public and 7% of registered voters, according to Pew Research Center. They’re predominantly white (68%), young (71% under 49), and educated (48% with a college degree). Progressives strongly back Black Lives Matter, social acceptance of transgender people and believe in systemic racial bias.

Progressives are more liberal than the broader U.S. public on a number of issues:

• 75% say there are countries that are better than the U.S., compared to 25% of the general population.

• Less than a quarter of Americans support reducing the size of America’s military, compared to 65% of progressives.

• 86% of progressives say people who have immigrated to the U.S. illegally generally make the communities they live in better. Less than half of Americans say the same.

• About 25% of Americans say success in life is pretty much determined by forces outside of our control, compared to 62% of progressives.

• Roughly 1 in 4 Americans think billionaires are bad for the country. 73% of progressives say the same.

Pew Research Center on why progressives are so influential in the Democratic Party: “Although they are one of the smallest political typology groups, Progressive Left are the most politically engaged group in the Democratic coalition. No other group turned out to vote at a higher rate in the 2020 general election, and those who did nearly unanimously voted for Joe Biden. They donated money to campaigns in 2020 at a higher rate than any other Democratic-oriented group.”

Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., the influential chair of the 103-member strong Congressional Progressive Caucus, might be one of President Biden’s biggest headaches from within his own party. (The Political Scene)

Jayapal in a new interview with New Yorker editor David Remnick on whether President Biden is committed enough to a progressive agenda: “My concern is that in the last year, the White House and the Biden campaign has taken a very different tack, which always happens in a second part of a four-year term. … The two biggest things that that people talk to me about every day are housing and childcare. They saw that we had Democratic control of the house the Senate and the White House and we didn't get that done.”

Some of Jayapal’s past statements have clashed with Biden’s own stances.

Biden has expressed full-throated support for Israel. Here’s what Jayapal’s said:

• On sexual violence against Israeli women by Hamas: “I’ve condemned what Hamas has done. … However, I think we have to be balanced about bringing in the outrages against Palestinians.”

• Responding to a group of pro-Palestine protesters: “I want you to know that we have been fighting to make it clear that Israel is a racist state, that the Palestinian people deserve self-determination and autonomy, that the dream of a two-state solution is slipping away from us, that it does not even feel possible.”

Biden has repeatedly backed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has vowed not to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Here’s what Jayapal’s said:

• In a since-retracted letter asking Biden to strike a deal with Putin to end the Ukraine war: “In conclusion, we urge you to make vigorous diplomatic efforts in support of a negotiated settlement and ceasefire, engage in direct talks with Russia, explore prospects for a new European security arrangement acceptable to all parties that will allow for a sovereign and independent Ukraine, and, in coordination with our Ukrainian partners, seek a rapid end to the conflict and reiterate this goal as America’s chief priority.”

Biden has signaled openness to tougher immigration measures in response to record-high levels of migrants entering the U.S. Here’s what Jayapal’s said:

• Explaining why Congressional Progressive Caucus members will refuse to back any border legislation endorsed by Republicans: “We’re going to hurt immigrant communities and a progressive base that needs to see a difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden on immigration. …There is clearly a difference on many other things — but on immigration, which is the issue that animates a lot of folks in our progressive base and certainly immigrants in Georgia and Arizona … this is going to hurt us.”

Amid a number of high-profile strikes last year, the union membership rate in the U.S. fell to an all-time low. (AP)

New data from the Bureau of Labor statistics:

• In 2023, 10% of hourly and salaried workers (14.4 million people) were union members.

• That’s down a bit from 10.1% in 2022.

• The total number of unionized workers rose slightly from last year (14.3 million).

2023 was one of the biggest years for organized labor in recent memory, with more than 20 major work stoppages lasting weeks or longer. Americans overwhelmingly sided with workers in last year’s labor disputes involving auto workers and Hollywood actors and writers, according to an August Gallup poll. A record-high 61% of Americans believe unions benefit the U.S. economy more than they hurt it.