Wednesday Edition: Kamala's Big Move

Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, appears to be tacking to the center, and that’s probably a wise thing if she wants to better her chances of beating Donald Trump. (NYT)

Setting the stage: Harris’ past support for controversial progressive policies are widely seen as a political liability.

• Matt Yglesias, a journalist and Democrat, suggested in a new blog post that Harris should “shake the Etch-a-Sketch” - that is, reset public perception by adopting a more moderate policy agenda.

• In a recent episode of the Ruthless podcast, the show’s hosts, all former or current Republican operatives, laid out the GOP playbook for attacking the vice president’s record.

Ruthless:

Bubba’s Two Cents

Is the vice president’s shift to the center sincere? Well, here are a few comments from New York Times reporter Reid Epstein’s story on Harris’ move to the middle:

-”When she ran for president the first time, Kamala Harris darted to the left as she fought for attention from the Democratic Party’s liberal wing.”

-”She ran to the left as progressive ideas dominated the last competitive Democratic primary.”

-”After she dropped out, social and racial justice protests swept across the country in the summer of 2020, and Ms. Harris joined other Democrats in supporting progressive ideas during what appeared to be a national realignment on criminal justice.”

This makes her sound like a politician who follows the crowd, if it’ll get her votes. But, at the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter as that’s the nature of the political game. Was Kari Lake being sincere when she called a state abortion ban in Arizona a “great law” in 2022? Or was Lake being sincere when earlier this year she called on state lawmakers to repeal that same law?

Suburban women have played a key role in the last few elections — which way will they swing this year? (Bloomberg)

The latest: Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by 12 points (52% to 40%) in a new HarrisX/Forbes poll.

• On the other hand, an earlier NPR/PBS News/Marist poll showed Trump leading Harris 47% to 42% among small city/suburban women.

• Other surveys have shown a gender gap among voters, with men leaning toward Trump and women favoring Harris.

The trend: While suburban women were once overwhelmingly white and Republican, they’ve become more racially diverse, more likely to back Democrats and very pro-choice.

The politics: Post-Roe v. Wade, Trump has softened his stance on abortion in a bid to shore up support among women.

• Meanwhile, Democrats’ messaging this election cycle has focused heavily on the GOP’s reproductive rights record.

Exhibit A: A new ad from the Democratic group Won’t PAC Down shows sweaty, balding and overweight Republican men making comments suggesting they want to control women’s private lives.

Bubba’s Two Cents

The “Republicans are creepy” line of attack is more about creating a gut-level disgust reaction among women than it is about accurately reflecting policy (for the record, Trump, and even the supposedly much creepier J.D. Vance, have substantially moderated their abortion stances). Unlike Democrats’ “threat to democracy” or Project 2025 campaigns, this attack strategy isn’t abstract. It’s visceral and personal. And for that reason, it might be more effective.

Gallup just updated its survey on which behaviors Americans see as morally wrong.

Gallup:

Bubba’s Two Cents

What I take away from the above chart is that America’s moral outlook doesn’t jive neatly with any particular party or ideology. You could make the case that U.S. society is pretty libertine if you focused on the solid majority that say having a baby outside of wedlock is morally acceptable. On the other hand, America could look downright prudish based on the share of people who say pornography is morally wrong.