Why Trump/Kamala Will Win

The 2024 presidential contest is a dead heat, but whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris emerges as the winner, here are the signs that suggested this outcome was coming. (CNN)

Trump:

• Vibes: Only 28% of Americans think the country’s on the right track. Historically, when the incumbent party loses, this number averages around 25%.

• Biden baggage: President Biden has a net approval rating that is 15 points underwater.

• GOP registration gains: Republicans have made voter registration inroads in key swing states (For instance, Republican registrations in Arizona are up 5 points compared to 2020).

Harris:

• Popularity contest: Harris’ net favorability is 5 points higher than Trump’s — going back to 1956, the more popular candidate has won 16 out of 17 presidential elections. (Sidenote: In 2016, Trump became the only candidate to buck the trend.)

• Recent history: Democrats have outperformed Joe Biden’s 2020 margin by an average of 2 points in recent state and federal special elections, a positive indicator for their chances in the upcoming election.

• Voter propensity advantage: The vice president has made gains among voters with a high likelihood of showing up to the polls, while Trump has gained with lower propensity voters.