The Battle for the Senate
Bubba
16 Oct
Republicans are favored to retake the Senate in November, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be easy. (Politico)
The latest: According to new internal polling from the GOP’s Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), all but one Republican senate candidate is running behind Trump in battleground states.
Among the highlights in the latest SLF report, Sen. Ted Cruz is only up 1 point in Texas.
Key races in Maryland and Michigan are moving away from Republicans, with GOP candidates trailing by 7 and 8 points, respectively.
On the other hand: Two of the most prominent election forecasters, RacetotheWH and 270toWin, are both projecting Republicans will capture 51 seats and gain control of the senate.
Why the map is unfavorable to Dems: Although Democrats hold leads in several key battleground states, like Ohio, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of these are seats they already control or are held by independent candidates who caucus with Democrats.
Alternatively, Democrats are fighting an uphill battle to flip Republican-held seats in red states like Florida, despite investing significant resources.
While Dems might retain certain seats, the inability to gain new ground in Republican territories limits their chances of offsetting potential losses in places like West Virginia and Montana, which are expected to flip to Republicans.
The status quo: Democrats currently maintain a slight edge in the Senate with 48 seats, backed by three independents who caucus with them.
Republicans hold 49 seats.